Election Night: What Will We Know And When Will We Know It

The AP and most other news sources did not “call” the 2020 US Election until Saturday, November 7th, 4 days after Election Day. With polls indicating another very tight race in 2024, many of the same factors that led to a delayed call in 2020 could be at play again. But while everyone recognizes the tail risk possibilities, Goldman's economist team believes that market participants appear to be overestimating the probability that a delayed result will prevent financial markets from reflecting the likely election outcome on election night or early the next morning.

Below we share some thoughts from the Goldman team on what to expect on election night (full report available to pro subscribers):

• First, even though polls indicate a tight race, there are many plausible scenarios that would allow for a relatively clear election outcome early in the night.
• Second, some rule changes around ballot processing and likely somewhat reduced mail-in voting should allow for faster reports in some key states.
• Third, voter turnout and many other sources of polling errors tend to be correlated across states, so there is generally enough information available relatively early on election night from states that report results quickly for the market to be able to gauge the likely winner of the presidential race even if it is not officially called.