What If Russia Strikes Back At NATO?

Remembering Russia's Conventional Capabilities

As ZeroHedge reported last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin warned the West about the consequences of attacking Russia with Western-made missiles, including British Storm Shadow missiles: 

On Thursday President Vladimir Putin issued a stern warning in the wake of Ukraine launching long-range strikes on Russia's territory utilizing newly approved US and UK long-range missiles.

"Kiev has launched a long-range missile strike against military facilities located within internationally-recognized Russian territory," began his televised address by saying. He confirmed British-made Storm Shadow missiles and US-made HIMARS were fired targets located in Bryansk and Kursk Regions.

He said this action threatens to turn the Ukraine conflict into a global war. "A regional Ukraine conflict instigated by the West has acquired elements of a global one," Putin spelled out, and noted that these systems cannot be used without the direct operational involvement of Western military specialists. 

Whenever Russia makes these sorts of warnings, people often think of Russia's nuclear weapons, which anti-Russia hawks insist Russia is unlikely to use. But as British historian Mark Felton pointed out on Friday, Russia has plenty of conventional weapons with which it could retaliate against NATO. In the video below, Felton described what a conventional attack by Russia on Britain might look like. 

What A Conventional Attack Might Look Like

Below is Dr. Felton's video, followed by a summary of some of its key points. 

Use of British Weapons in Ukraine:

• Ukraine has been allowed to fire British Storm Shadow cruise missiles into Russian territory, escalating tensions.
• Russia views this as an act of war by Britain, with Putin responding by launching ballistic missiles in Ukraine.

Potential Russian Conventional Attack on the UK:

• Defense analysts argue that Russia could launch a non-nuclear, conventional attack on the UK, similar to the Luftwaffe’s tactics during WWII.
• The UK is vulnerable due to:
  • Limited air defense resources, including only four Quick Reaction Alert (QRA) Typhoon jets stationed at two RAF bases.
  • A lack of dedicated anti-aircraft missile batteries along the eastern UK coast.
  • The Royal Navy’s small fleet, with limited availability for missile defense.

Russian Cruise Missile Capabilities:

• Russia has advanced cruise missiles that can be launched from submarines or aircraft, potentially targeting:
  • Radar sites.
  • Military airbases.
  • Naval bases, including the vulnerable Faslane submarine base in Scotland.
  • Civilian infrastructure like ports, bridges, power stations, and fuel storage facilities.

Supply Chain and Civilian Vulnerability:

• Britain’s dependence on imported goods makes it highly vulnerable to disruption:
  • Strikes on ports or transport infrastructure could quickly lead to food and fuel shortages.
  • Blackouts caused by attacks on power stations could severely impact civilian life.

Civil Defense Shortcomings:

• The UK lacks Cold War-era civil defense measures, including:
  • Public training for emergencies.
  • Shelters and warning systems.
  • Military bases without modern bomb-proof bunkers.
• Analysts recommend urgent action to improve defense readiness, including:
  • Deploying missile batteries at key infrastructure.
  • Increasing RAF fighter and AWACS (airborne early warning) coverage.
  • Reactivating civil defense systems.

Cyber Threat:

• A cyber-attack is likely to accompany any physical attack, targeting the UK’s computer-based systems and causing widespread disruption.

Considering The Market Impact Of A Wider War 

If you are concerned about the impact on markets if NATO's proxy war with Russia becomes a direct one, as a reminder, you can download our iPhone hedging app by clicking on the QR code below or aiming your iPhone camera at it.

Maybe Trump Will Fix It 

If you are confident that President-Elect Trump will negotiate a swift end to the current war with Russia, as he has promised, then euphoria, rather than fear is in order. Earlier this month, we highlighted four trades positioned to profit if the current Trump rally continues to the end of the year. 

And if you'd like a heads up when we place our next trade, you can subscribe to our trading Substack/occasional email list below. 

Trump Trades Update

We had a partial exit on one of the four Trump trades from the post above today; 

1. Calls on Robinhood Markets (HOOD -0.95%↓). Bought for $1.70 on 11/12/2024; sold (half) for $6 on 11/25/2024. Profit: 253%.

If you'd like to stay in touch

You can scan for optimal hedges for individual securities, find our current top ten names, and create hedged portfolios on our website. You can also follow Portfolio Armor on X here, or become a free subscriber to our trading Substack using the link below (we're using that for our occasional emails now).