The Facts On Illegal Immigration & Border Security
Pretty much every poll shows the economy remains the #1 voter issue in the upcoming US presidential election.
Many of these same polls show immigration and border security as the second most important issue.
Concerned by reports of a surge of undocumented immigrants crossing the border illegally in recent years, many voters worry about the economic, social and political implications of this wave of bodies, and wonder if America can effectively absorb & afford them.
I recognize this is a quite sensitive topic, one that some would say is outside of the purview of Thoughtful Money.
But this issue does have important economic implications, and from what I hear from viewers, many regular Americans feel they just don't have a good sense of the facts on this situation.
So I’m willing to take the risk here.
And that's why I sat down with Dr Steven Camarota, who serves as the Director of Research for the Center for Immigration Studies (CIS), a non-partisan Washington, D.C.-based research institute that examines the consequences of legal and illegal immigration on the United States.
I did my best to have him lay out the facts of the situation at our borders, in as non-partisan, respectful and impartial a manner as possible.
Here are my key takeaways from this interview:
As for the US *legal* immigration system, Steven would give it a "C" grade for overall processing and operations, acknowledging that professionals do their best with limited resources. However, for prioritizing skilled immigrants, he would rate the system a "D" or "F" since it focuses more on family unification rather than selecting skilled workers. In contrast, countries like Australia and Canada emphasize skills more effectively in their immigration policies.
As for the surge in volume of *illegal* immigration over recent years, the U.S. is indeed experiencing a border security crisis. According to Jay Johnson, former DHS Secretary, 1,000 daily border crossings overwhelm the system, and for the past 3.5 years, the number has been significantly higher than that.
This current rate of illegal immigration is unprecedented, with over 10 million border encounters reported since January 2021, including 5.6 million inadmissible aliens released into the U.S. This surge is overwhelming resources at the border and creating systemic inefficiencies.
Additionally, during the fiscal years 2021-2023, about 1.7 million individuals were observed entering the U.S. without being apprehended, primarily at the southern border. Steven adds that this number could be even higher, with an estimated additional 600,000 crossings likely missed in the most recent fiscal year alone.
Furthermore, the visa overstay issue also contributes significantly to illegal immigration. In 2022, approximately 800,000 people overstayed their visas, and while exact numbers for 2023 are unavailable, the trend suggests that visa overstays could add around 300,000-400,000 more each year.
In total, Steven estimates that in the last three years, approximately 9 million people have entered the U.S. illegally, considering border encounters, visa overstays, and observed illegal entries. Of these, around
3 million have received work authorization, despite still being classified as part of the illegal immigrant population.
While the intent is for admitted undocumented individuals to be here temporarily until their cases are processed, the reality is quite different. The system is so overwhelmed that it can take up to a decade for cases to be heard, making enforcement largely ineffective. As a result, a significant number of people stay despite having no legal right to do so, creating a situation where the intended temporary release policy becomes a de facto pathway to remaining in the United States.
Illegal immigrants tend to have much lower levels of education and skills. Immigrants with less than a college degree have a high welfare usage rate, with 68% accessing major welfare programs. This is much higher than the 34% of immigrant households with a bachelor's degree or higher.
As result, the recent surge in less educated immigrants is resulting in a net fiscal drain on the economy. The surge in illegal immigrants has strained public services, including emergency rooms and social welfare systems in municipalities, further exacerbating resource limitations for existing U.S. citizens and legal residents. Steven estimates the lifetime fiscal cost of unskilled illegal immigrants is approximately $68,000 per individual or $68 billion per million.
Cartels exploit the overwhelmed border, using migrants to distract Border Patrol while smuggling drugs like Fentanyl. This “chaotic border” situation facilitates the entry of illicit substances and organized crime activities
In terms of improving our *legal* immigration system, Steven references the 1990s Barbara Jordan Commission, which advocated eliminating the Diversity Visa Lottery, curtailing family-based immigration, and prioritizing skilled immigration to serve U.S. interests better. He echoes the commission’s view that effective enforcement is crucial for a legitimate immigration system.
To curb *illegal* immigration, Steven suggests making E-Verify mandatory to ensure employers only hire legally authorized workers. Without work opportunities, it’s estimated that 500,000-600,000 illegal immigrants would leave voluntarily each year.
While deporting millions of people has a lot of practical challenges, Steven suggests starting with the 1 million who have already had their day in court and were ordered to leave. He emphasizes the need for a holistic approach to enforcement rather than mass deportations.
For the full interview with Dr Steven Camarota, watch the below video:
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