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Keeping Score

Portfolio Armor's Photo
by Portfolio Armor
Sunday, Jul 21, 2024 - 18:14
A trader at his work station.

Last Week’s Trade Exits

As soon as I exit a stock or options trade, I note that in the comments of the post where I first mentioned the trade; at the end of the week, I try to track them all in one post. Starting this month, I have also been tracking them in this spreadsheet. These are the trades I exited last week.

Stocks or Exchange Traded Products

  1. Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF 0.40%↑). Bought at $171.54 on 7/8/2024; stopped out at $150.79 on 7/18/2024. Loss: 12%

Options trades

  1. Call spread on Tesla (TSLA -0.61%↓). Entered at a net credit of $1.50 on 7/11/2024; options expired worthless on 7/19/2024. Profit: 150%.

Comments

Stocks or Exchange Traded Products

Despite getting stopped out on ANF, our core strategy continues to perform well, driven by the performance of our top ten names.

So far, we have 6-month returns for 56 weekly top names cohorts since we started this Substack at the end of December, 2022. 

And as you can see above, our top names have averaged returns of 23.06% over the next six months, versus SPY’s average of 13.1%. You can see an interactive version of the table above here, where you can click on each date and see a chart showing each of the holdings that week.

By exiting our losers early and letting our winners run, our core strategy can generate even better performance than that.

Options trades

As I wrote about this one last week,

I’ve removed the paywall on this morning’s trade alert, so you can read it below, but let me quickly explain why I placed this trade. No, I didn’t know Tesla would postpone the development of its robo-taxi, but I knew this:

  1. Tesla’s RSI (Relative Strength Index) of 87 indicated the stock was overbought.

  2. After closing in the green for 11 or 12 straight sessions, the stock seemed like it was ready for a pullback.

  3. The net credit available on this call spread so close to the money was too good to pass up.

Tesla imagery

Tesla closed at $239.20 on Friday, so this one worked out well.

If you want a heads up when we place our next trade, feel free to subscribe to our trading Substack/occasional email list below. 

 

If you'd like to stay in touch

You can scan for optimal hedges for individual securities, find our current top ten names, and create hedged portfolios on our website. You can also follow Portfolio Armor on X here, or become a free subscriber to our trading Substack using the link below (we're using that for our occasional emails now).

Sunday Afternoon Update 

Although we had a good week trading last week, our political prognostication was not good. We predicted that Biden would stay in the race, and he just dropped out.

We just exited our Biden shares on Predictit for 1 cent, after buying them at an average cost of 42 cents, so we took at 98% loss on that prediction. 

 

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