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Riding With Biden

Portfolio Armor's Photo
by Portfolio Armor
Wednesday, Jul 17, 2024 - 23:51
Joe Biden smiling and pointing at you from a convertible sports car.
Let's hope Biden doesn't get behind of the wheel now. 

Submitted via Portfolio Armor: 

Biden's Probably Not Dropping Out

After Biden's disastrous debate last month, many observers assumed he was going to drop out or be forced out of the race. I wasn't one of them. As I wrote then, the Democrats were most likely stuck with him. 

I wanted to bet on Biden being the Dem nominee after his debate, but I ran into problems funding my PredictIt account. Biden's subsequent public appearances didn't do much to assuage the concerns about his mental competency raised by his debate performance. 

The Trump Assassination Attempt Effect

Then came the attempted assassination on Donald Trump. Trump's miraculous survival and iconic show of defiance after getting shot, made it look even more likely that he would win in November. As comedian Bill Maher put it, it almost didn't matter who the Democrats ran against Trump. 

As a consequence, the odds on Biden staying in the race climbed to 71%.

Why would a Democrat want to take Biden's place, only to lose in a possible landslide to Donald Trump?

The way PredictIt works is you can buy "shares" of an event happening, such as Biden being the Democratic nominee, for some amount below $1, where the price corresponds to the chance that event occurs. So, when Biden was trading at 71 cents, that suggested he had a 71% chance of being the nominee. 

Another Opportunity To Bet On Biden

Flash forward to today, when this headline crossed ZeroHedge (Biden Tests Positive For COVID After Saying He'd Consider Dropping Out If Diagnosed With 'Medical Condition'):

Just hours after President Biden mentioned in an interview that he would consider dropping out of the presidential race if diagnosed with a "medical condition," the elderly president tested positive for Covid-19 this afternoon. 

UnidosUS president Janet Murguía informed the audience at the organization's national conference in Vegas about Biden's diagnosis.

White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said President Biden was delivering speeches in Las Vegas when he "experienced mild symptoms." 

KJP said the president "will be returning to Delaware, where he will self-isolate and will continue to carry out all of his duties fully during that time."

As a result of that (and statements by Schumer, Pelosi, and others suggesting Biden should step down), Biden shares plummeted on PredictIt. As I type this, they're currently trading for about 40 cents. 

Biden's Probably Still Going To Be The Nominee

I don't think a COVID diagnosis is what Biden had in mind when he said he might drop out due to a medical diagnosis, and I still don't think he or his loyalists want him to drop out, for the same reasons mentioned in our post last month. I also don't see the advantage to Democrats of Biden dropping out--the only other candidate who can use his campaign funds is Kamala Harris, and she polls worse against Trump than Biden does. 

So why are Pelosi and Schumer saying Biden should step down? Probably to distance themselves from the potential disaster. It Biden loses bigly in November, they can say they told him to step down. 

A Chance To Make Some Money

If you agree, you've got a chance to make some money now. I got a fill on my Biden shares for 50 cents, before the subsequent drop, but if you can get them for 40 cents now, that's even better for you. For $500, you can buy 1,250 Biden shares at 40 cents. If Biden ends up being the Dem nominee, those shares will settle at $1 each, so you'll have $1,250. I think PredictIt takes 5% on the way out, which means you'll net about $1,188.

So if Biden doesn't drop out, you'll have almost $700 in profit on your $500 bet. You could take $300 of that and buy yourself an annual subscription to The Portfolio Armor Substack, where, if our luck holds, you'll be able to get some more wins.

And you'll be able to take your family out for a nice meal with the rest. 

 

If you'd like to stay in touch

You can scan for optimal hedges for individual securities, find our current top ten names, and create hedged portfolios on our website. You can also follow Portfolio Armor on X here, or become a free subscriber to our trading Substack using the link below (we're using that for our occasional emails now).

 

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