"Absolutely Stunning": CRE Analyst Lists Latest Office Tower & Mall Valuation Collapses
The commercial real estate downturn is still underway, posing significant risks for investors across financial markets. CRE-linked equities, corporate credit, structured credit, and private markets all feel the impacts of major unwinds as property prices plunge.
While headwinds from high interest rates may diminish in the coming quarters, with rate traders pricing in the possibility of the first 25bps cut as early as the mid-September FOMC meeting, the critical question is whether these projected rate cuts will be adequate to cushion the landing.
Office tower valuations remain sloped in a downward trend, plummeting in many cases, as vacancy rates soar as remote work trends keep white-collar workers out of the office and at home. These imploding values remain a massive threat to regional banks, with the CRE crisis likely to persist through 2025.
X user Triple Net Investor offers a sobering reality of the CRE space. He closely follows the space and noted dozens of recent valuation declines for malls, towers, and multi-family properties.
Here are the examples of why the CRE storm is not over:
One of Maryland's largest malls, called White Marsh Mall, located in a northeast suburb of Baltimore County, had a stunning valuation plunge...
One of the largest malls in Baltimore has plunged a shocking $320M in value since 2013
— Triple Net Investor (@TripleNetInvest) July 29, 2024
A recent appraisal valued the White Marsh Mall at $80M, down from $300M in 2013
A receiver was appointed to take control of the 1.2M sq ft mall earlier this yr
This is one of many… pic.twitter.com/ajriEkumPo
"This is a commercial real estate apocalypse," Triple Net Investor said.
Wow, this is absolutely crazy...
— Triple Net Investor (@TripleNetInvest) July 26, 2024
Brookfield owned Gas Company Tower in Downtown LA has plummeted over $400M in value
The skyscraper was recently valued at $214.5M
It was appraised at $632M just 3 years ago
This is a commercial real estate apocalypse
Source: Commercial… pic.twitter.com/UFZuExcqz7
He said, "This is absolutely insane."
This is absolutely insane...
— Triple Net Investor (@TripleNetInvest) July 25, 2024
A Chinese investor is acquiring a skyscraper in Downtown Los Angeles for $120m...
Or a stunning ~$170M LESS than the debt owed
Brookfield recently defaulted on a $319M loan tied to the property - at the time of default ~$290M was outstanding on the… pic.twitter.com/dDxORkTLgi
He pointed out Trump's "incredibly well-timed deal" to sell the Trump International Hotel in 2022.
This is an incredibly well-timed deal pulled off by Donald Trump...
— Triple Net Investor (@TripleNetInvest) July 23, 2024
In 2022 he sold The Trump International Hotel in Washington DC for $375M at the absolute top of the market
Fast forward and the buyer recently defaulted on a $285M loan tied to the hotel after rebranding it to… pic.twitter.com/f2mIUDn5fR
A multi-family complex in foreclosure in Dallas, Texas.
This trend is very concerning...
— Triple Net Investor (@TripleNetInvest) July 20, 2024
518 apartment units faces foreclosure in Dallas, Texas
- Tides at Whispering Hill: 314 units
- Tides at Lawler East: 204 units
The total loan stood at $35M or ~$67K a unit
First office buildings fell off a cliff...
Now… pic.twitter.com/f4F8ZvJyod
He said, "Blackstone has filed to foreclose on the 33-story McGraw-Hill skyscraper in the Hell's Kitchen neighborhood of Manhattan."
This is absolutely nuts...
— Triple Net Investor (@TripleNetInvest) July 19, 2024
Blackstone has filed to foreclose on the 33-story McGraw-Hill skyscraper in the Hell's Kitchen neighborhood of Manhattan
The debt was originally financed by Signature Bank
Things have gone from bad to worse in NYC and it doesn't look like things are… pic.twitter.com/jZyYFB1f0q
And this.
This is absolutely brutal...
— Triple Net Investor (@TripleNetInvest) July 18, 2024
Goldman Sachs and Ballast are set to surrender 82 apartment buildings (~1,200 units) in San Francisco to lender Royal Bank of Canada
They recently defaulted on loans totaling $687.5M
The apartments were purchased between 2017 and 2020 for $704M… pic.twitter.com/5o5HTkEqrs
More pain.
BREAKING NEWS:
— Triple Net Investor (@TripleNetInvest) July 16, 2024
The owner of San Francisco's largest apartment community has defauled on ~$1.8B in loans tied to the complex
The 152 acre, 3,200 unit apartment community known as Parkmerced was just appraised at $1.4B, plummeting $700M from 2019 and $400M less than the total… pic.twitter.com/EzBH2nk1fS
It just gets worse.
BREAKING NEWS:
— Triple Net Investor (@TripleNetInvest) July 18, 2024
EJM Equities has defaulted on an office complex in a upscale neighborhood in Los Angeles (Playa Vista), owing $271M in unpaid debt
They defaulted on a $250M loan from Morgan Stanley tied to The Bluffs office complex
EJM Equities bought The Bluffs from JPMorgan… pic.twitter.com/0YONEQA1au
Oops.
This is very bad...
— Triple Net Investor (@TripleNetInvest) July 15, 2024
The tallest building in Birmingham Alabama faces foreclosure
Shipt Tower has been placed in receivership
Wells Fargo, the previous anchor tenant, relocated in 2019 and overall occupancy has plummeted
This looks to be just the start of the troubles for… pic.twitter.com/eHAfjttnuj
GnS Economics analysts Mate Suto and Tuomas Malinen recently warned:
"Basically, almost every bank in the US is holding some type of CRE loan on their balance sheets. Therefore, it is no surprise that this is an area warranting close observation, especially because the risks posed by CRE exposure spread quite unevenly between large and small banks."
Fed Powell has a rolling crisis on his hands. And the goal is to save the fireworks for after the election.