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Despite a strong market rebound, institutional positioning tells a different story—hedge funds are still net sellers, leverage remains near record lows, and sentiment is stuck in the gutter. With so much skepticism… what happens if the rally actually has legs?
SPX is still stuck in a range, but with resistance near 5750 and the 200-day just above, a breakout could force chasing. Meanwhile, NASDAQ sits at massive levels, flirting with the 200-day and a potential inverted head and shoulders — imagine the pain if that kicks in...
We're taking a deliberately one-sided look at the risks building beneath the surface — and the case for a renewed bear. Become a Premium subscriber to read more.
CTAs are now the most net long European equities vs the US in two years, supported by improving earnings, stable inflation, M&A momentum, and strong fund inflows. Macro data shows resilience, and flow reversal suggests Europe may finally be catching up.
S&P 500 is up 18% from recent lows, but sentiment and positioning remain depressed. Extreme shorting has yet to trigger major covering. With low leverage, cautious sentiment, and strong retail inflows, there's room for more upside if momentum builds.