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Gold back at an all-time high in inflation-adjusted terms, 45 years after its 1980 peak, surging 26% in 100 days—a move seen during major crises. With gold crushing bond returns since 2020 & ETF inflows at $100bn, its unique qualities continue to attract buyers despite reaching overbought levels.
Everyone’s been trained to fade Europe — every breakout gets clubbed, every rally ends in regret. But with European equities now sharply outperforming, believing the rally continues might just be the most contrarian macro call of the year.
Volatility has cooled from its April highs, but the market’s nerves are still frayed. As the VIX term structure flattens and SPX range compresses, deeper cracks—like MOVE’s stubborn grip and skew distortions—remind us that healing takes time.
After a historic rally, markets are daring the bears to "bend the knee" as extreme positioning, sentiment washouts, and record volumes suggest a major bottom may be forming. With tech escaping tariffs and retail reloading, the contrarian case is gaining momentum fast.
One could argue that these trade policies, which on the surface fly in the face of academic evidence, are politically smart for a number of reasons. Become a Zero Hedge Premium subscriber to read more.