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It Takes Bulls to Have a Bull Market
Bull market or bull trap? Depends who's still long...
Retail’s all-in. Hedge funds are split. Systematics pulled $53B. The Mag 7? Losing shine. Leverage? Maxed on one side, flat on the other. It’s the most confused market in years—flows, fear, and FOMO all collide. Everyone’s a contrarian, but history says: you don’t get bull markets without bulls.
Putting Gold’s Recent Rally (+25 Percent YTD) into Historical Context
45 years later
Gold back at an all-time high in inflation-adjusted terms, 45 years after its 1980 peak, surging 26% in 100 days—a move seen during major crises. With gold crushing bond returns since 2020 & ETF inflows at $100bn, its unique qualities continue to attract buyers despite reaching overbought levels.
How to Believe in Continued European Equity Outperformance
Is this time truly different?
Everyone’s been trained to fade Europe — every breakout gets clubbed, every rally ends in regret. But with European equities now sharply outperforming, believing the rally continues might just be the most contrarian macro call of the year.
Vol’s Down, Nerves Aren’t: A Fragile Healing Begins
Post peak fear
Volatility has cooled from its April highs, but the market’s nerves are still frayed. As the VIX term structure flattens and SPX range compresses, deeper cracks—like MOVE’s stubborn grip and skew distortions—remind us that healing takes time.
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