AzureReptile8972

Is this time truly different?

Everyone’s been trained to fade Europe — every breakout gets clubbed, every rally ends in regret. But with European equities now sharply outperforming, believing the rally continues might just be the most contrarian macro call of the year.

Post peak fear

Volatility has cooled from its April highs, but the market’s nerves are still frayed. As the VIX term structure flattens and SPX range compresses, deeper cracks—like MOVE’s stubborn grip and skew distortions—remind us that healing takes time.

Near Bear Moment

After a historic rally, markets are daring the bears to "bend the knee" as extreme positioning, sentiment washouts, and record volumes suggest a major bottom may be forming. With tech escaping tariffs and retail reloading, the contrarian case is gaining momentum fast.

The contrarian bounce

Everything we look at is at extreme levels and everyone we speak to is scared. This is not a market for heroes, but unless you think we are about to see a total collapse of the system, Warren's "be greedy when others are fearful" quote is starting to make sense at these levels. Here are some charts showing just how extreme things are at the moment.

A man for the people

One could argue that these trade policies, which on the surface fly in the face of academic evidence, are politically smart for a number of reasons. Become a Zero Hedge Premium subscriber to read more.