When economists are this bearish...
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The outlook is so awful...
When macro economists sound the most bearish, it often means the worst is already priced in. Markets don’t wait for confirmation—they front-run fear. Historically, when the consensus gets overwhelmingly negative, the actual downside rarely plays out as expected. Yes, we admit that this process has been a little too rapid even for our taste and trading style - but it does not change the fact that economists and strategists are now very one-sided in their negativity, and that awakes the contrarian in us. Let's have a look at the latest bearish comments on the economy from sell-side over the weekend.