Trading Trump: The Real Reason The Valley Boys Love Trump...?
Trading Trump: The skinny on macro
Goldman: "We continue to believe that a second Trump presidency would involve higher tariff levels, looser regulatory policy, and potentially looser US fiscal policy."
The probabilities
75% probability of Trump winning US election on Nov 5.
Source: Hartnett / oddschecker.com
Trump correlation
The Trump Odds vs. the S&P.
Scott Rubner: "...a lot of this stuff is getting priced into the market already."
Source: Scott Rubner
Trump & junk
Trump loves junk food and junk stocks seem to love Trump...
Morgan Stanley's financial specialist sales notes the following: "Lower quality parts of the market continue to be well bid post the Presidential debate. The short interest index, the long momentum, and the short momentum indices all rallied hard..."
Source: Morgan Stanley
Trading Trump: Equity volatility
Implied volatility is still pricing rising risks into the US elections.
Source: Goldman
The dollar
USD vs Trump election win odds.
Source: Credit Agricole
Trading Trump: Yield curve
US yield curve has steepened with a rising probability of a Republican win.
Source: Goldman
Trading Trump: IG
The deregulatory and more M&A-friendly agenda of a Trump administration would likely increase dispersion in the IG market from current rock-bottom levels.
Source: Goldman
Trading Trump: Credit doesn't care
Credit markets have shown a much less clear correlation with Trump’s election odds.
Source: Goldman
Lame (senile) duck
Not perfectly applicable here, but....we are at that part of the year where things start to diverge if the President is up for re-election or not.
Source: Carson
Why the billionaires and the Valley boys are on board the MAGA train
"As the likelihood of a second term for President Trump rises, so does the likelihood of an extension of Trump's 2017 corporate and individual tax cuts beyond 2025." (Yardeni)
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