Slumping SOX And Nasty NVDA
Not so sexy SOX
SOX is down to trend channel lows, trading just above the 21 day moving average. This trend has stayed intact since mid April, but recall what Goldman's Callahan pointed out last week (here): "... only years that started faster in the 30 year history of the index were 1995, 2000 & 2023."
Source: Refinitiv
As SOX goes...
...goes the market? SOX vs SPX.
Source: Refinitiv
SOX telling us something?
The SOX /SPX ratio reversed "violently" in recent sessions, leaving a gap between the ratio and the SPX. Watch relative SOX weakness carefully, as it has tended to spill over to the rest of the market.
Source: Refinitiv
NASDAQ - not low
NASDAQ managed reversing in the upper part of the big trend channel. We are slightly less overbought, but note the 50 day is way lower. 20k is a short term level to watch. A close below it and the next big support is down around the 19200 area.
Source: Refinitiv
NVDA technicals
NVDA is down around 15% from ATHs. Note we are trading right on the 21 day moving average, but still above the trend line that started in mid April. Despite the 15% correction from ATHs, this stock is still trading some 20% above the 50 day...
Source: Refinitiv
As NVDA goes...
...goes the NASDAQ? Chart shows NVDA vs QQQ.
Source: Refinitiv
NVDA - just doing what it is supposed to do?
Copper decided "ditching" part of the AI hype a few weeks ago, all outlined in our mid May note "Copper overheated...." . NVDA seems to be catching up...
Source: Refinitiv
Did he jinx it?
Reposting from last week. Perfection....
Source: X
No Bros in Ibiza
Bitcoin is down to the massive 60k level. The big long term trend comes in here. We are well below the 100 day, now negatively sloping, but still above the 200 day that comes in around 58k.
Source: Refinitiv
The VWAP bid
The big buyback VWAP bid is taking a pause. GS projects around 80% of the SPX is in the blackout window, growing to 90% by the end of the week.
Source: GS
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