Shaky Market Confidence

Huge

5450 is a massive level. We are below the 50 day, but still above the 100 day. Note the big trend line coming in right here.

Source: Refinitiv

Also huge

NDX is trading right on the 100 day (well below the 50 day). Note the big trend line coming in here. These levels have been important earlier this year.

Source: Refinitiv

SPX and 3M VIX vs VIX

For bottom pickers. BofA points out: "The VIX3M vs VIX has moved to its lowest level since mid-April to reflect souring tactical sentiment. While the April reading just above the oversold tactical panic threshold of 1.0 preceded a 14% rally into mid-July, we would not rule out a panic dip in the VIX3M vs VIX below 1.0 prior to set-up a better tradeable low for the US equity market."

Source: BofA

Solid, but

Tony P: "...the Fed is set to deliver cuts into a decent setting for growth -- that is a solid foundation for US equities. set against that are the technical factors: valuation and positioning have been very demanding, the seasonals are tricky and the past few weeks illustrate how small the margin for error is right now".

Russell mania

Russell vs NASDAQ futures ratio printing another new recent high.

Source: Refinitiv

Small caps - cheap?

Not so much any more...BofA points out: "Small cap forward P/E is now slightly above avg. (15.5x vs. 15.2x avg.) after the recent rally".

Source: BofA

Chasing small caps

You are not alone chasing this space post the latest rally. US small cap funds see 2nd largest weekly inflow ever.

Source: BofA

Mega cap tech vs non profitable tech

This relative underperformance by mega cap tech is starting to become rather big.

Source: GS/Bloomberg

AI vs non AI

Chart shows AI winners vs companies at risk to AI.

Source: GS/Bloomberg

Stabilizer gone

Long gamma has turned to flat gamma. The big stabilizer is gone here. For the 1 minute explanation of gamma trading, see here.

Source: GS

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