Semis Crack… Oil Still Squeezing

Nothing’s broken… but it’s no longer clean

Markets are losing their clean look. The biggest driver of the rally, semis, is finally showing signs of stress after a historic run, while oil continues to grind higher and macro volatility remains oddly subdued.

Under the surface, the setup is getting more complex. Momentum is still there, but dispersion is rising, tails are mispriced, and key assets are no longer moving in sync.