Sell low, buy high goes extreme

1999?

The NDX 1999 vs now chart updated...

Source: Refinitiv

Must hold held

So far the SPX has bounced right on the massive trend line and the 200 day moving average. Note the shorter term trend channel that has been in place since July highs. The upper part of that channel is the first big resistance, the 4400 area.

Source: Refinitiv

100 points

SPX is up 100 points from day lows. Got gamma?

Source: Refinitiv

Destabilizing force very much in place

Dealers are stuck in "painful" short gamma land, buying highs and selling low. Remember, short gamma doesn't "care" about direction, so it works as a destabilizer both ways.

Source: Tier1Alpha

They are size short

Goldman's great sales Nocerino points out that CTAs are now short -$40B of SPX...the largest short recorded by their models. Time to chase again...(for more on that topic see our thematic note from earlier today here).

AI is alive

NVDA at highest since mid Sep...when the SPX traded at 4500 ish.

Source: Refinitiv

Thanks God for mega cap tech

In case you wonder why the NDX is holding up relatively well.

Source: GS

One way traffic

Cumulative Treasury flows are impressive. Hartnett points out: "...everybody bearish, but nobody sold".

Source: BofA

Still looks manageable

GS says that the drag to GDP growth from tighter Financial Conditions still seems manageable (assuming the FCI stabilizes).

Source: Goldman

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