The rolling 12M RTY-NDX performance spread

This has shot right past the -2SD level, something we breached for the first time during COVID. While this appears to be a pg1 recession-playbook strategy, we think it’s worth highlighting that not only do RTY relative rebounds tend to happen fast, but the revision ratio for the index has been better of late than its larger cap peers. In addition, the index tends to perform better after a bear steepening.