NVDA Peak Split Hype?
NVDA - believe it or not...
...but we are seeing the biggest down candle in a while. Something worth pointing out is just how massive the moves are in dollars. High/low today is around 5.5%. That is around $150bn in market cap change on "nothing".
Source: Refinitiv
Blow off top?
Gentle reminder of the previously hot split: "AAPL was +10% the week of the split to the Wednesday AM after the split (9/2/20), with the SPY +5% in that same time period...that crowded long was forced violently out 2 days after the split, leading to AAPL dropping 30%, and the S&P crashing 10%. That performance sound startling, but it was just an unwind of the gains made from the prior month, heading into the split...It is very interesting idea that a full Monday/Tuesday blow-off top would play into Wednesday FOMC, and a potential high in the stock." (Spotgamma)
Source: Refinitiv
Recall the NASDAQ whale?
We are far from what we saw take place when Softbank, the "NASDAQ whale", pushed volatilities sharply higher as they bought upside calls in tech aggressively, fuelling the squeeze further. That "bubble" was not massive, but the way volatilities traded was a small example of what BofA is talking about (must read AI and volatility note here).
Source: Refinitiv
Imagine if this is the start of FOMO
Current USA = Money market AUM = $7.3 Trillion, down small from ATHs. Maybe....
Source: Goldman
Sexy summer seasonals
The first 15 days of July has historically been the best two-week trading period of the year since 1928. July 17th is when equities start to fade.
Source: GS trading desk
Oversold rates
The US 10 year saw a high at 4.63% a week ago and is printing 4.27% as of writing. RSI at the most oversold in a long time.
Source: Refinitiv
Equities & election
During US election years, equities have typically paused into the vote and rallied subsequently.
Source: Barclays
Elections and VIX
Expecting much lower volatility is naive...25% increase in volatility from July-November of presidential election years.
Source: BofA
and it's back
MOVE vs VIX gap very wide again...
Source: Refinitiv
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