Oil - nervous about the war?

Oil prices: asymmetric risk

"The risk profile is asymmetric given the underlying tightness of oil markets. A de-escalation of tensions with Russia and a successful resolution of the Iran deal should push oil prices down toward our $86/bbl estimate of fair value. However, a confrontation that disrupts Russian supply has the potential to push oil prices much higher - perhaps to $120/bbl even in the face of an Iranian deal. As we have noted, a supply shock of this magnitude would be a material near-term drag on global growth" (JPM Macro)

If there is an oil crisis, how much of spare capacity is spare?