Make Or Break

NASDAQ - must hold coming up

NASDAQ has traded inside a big trend channel since October lows. We have seen tech move from the upper part to the lower part of the channel in basically two trading weeks. We crushed the 50 day yesterday, and are taking out the 100 day as of writing. 18900, give or take, is must hold area.

Source: Refinitiv

NASDAQ corrections

NASDAQ is down around 8% since ATHs. The April correction was around 8% as well. The correction that started last summer and ended in October saw NASDAQ sell off by 11%.

Source: Refinitiv

Wait a second

That huge pile of cash on the sidelines looks rather tiny. As a percentage of US equity market cap the cash on the sidelines has slid to record lows. BCA also writes: "The odds are that US stocks will soon peak, and a bear market will commence".

Source: BCA

Oversold mania

Tech has gone from very overbought, to very oversold. The April sell off saw NASDAQ reach slightly more oversold levels. Time to wake up the bounce book?

Source: Refinitiv

Oversold semis

SOX has been more oversold once since last October. We are below the 100 day, but longer term trend line is coming in around these levels.

Source: Refinitiv

Another day...

...another new recent high for the IWM/QQQ ratio.

Source: Refinitiv

Upside panic

We have seen some violent moves to the downside with vols moving sharply higher, but there is some upside panic as well. Small caps are very well bid....and that goes for the RVX as well. Spot up, volatility up playing out big time in small caps.

Source: Refinitiv

Eurostoxx 50 - will it?

The SX5E looks to be breaking below the massive range. We have not seen the index close this low since late February. 200 day is still lower, but note the 50 day is about to cross the 100 day. This is a negative cross you should pay attention to.

Source: Refinitiv

Europe and Trump

Tariffs hurt growth which hurts Europe, writes BCA.

Source: BCA

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