The Largest Rebalance Going Back To June 2023

A wall of supply meets lined-up HF buyers

1. ECM window fully open and the blocks keep on coming. Corporates are in their blackout period which means 30% less buying from the biggest buyer of equities. Quarter-end means pension funds are selling in decent size. CTA’s are in a holding pattern for now, but will start selling a little lower. All of this adds up to a pretty nasty supply picture.

2. However, HFs are buying: “US Equities overall were net bought for the 4th straight session driven by risk-on flows, as long buys > short sales (2 to 1). So fast-money buyers are lined up to use any weakness to add." (GS trading desk)