The "Just Fine" Bull Market
Just fine and normal
This is the "just fine and normal" stage of the bull market. Very little volatility, not that much exciting news flow and not stretched positioning. Very somber and grown-up. Let's look at some examples. Here first we can see that RSI is back in normal territory and investor sentiment is not extreme.
Source: Macrobond
Just neutral
The BofA Bull & Bear Indicator is at 6.2 signal is Neutral.
Source: BofA
Just muted
JPM says that their positioning indicators are muted:
"...despite our TPM’s level of positioning getting back to YTD highs, the change in positioning is only slightly positive on a 1wk basis while the 4wk remains negative (similar to where things stood 3 months ago)."
Source: JPM PI
Just slow and steady inflows
"Net flows into global equity funds slowed but remained positive in the week ending June 26 (+$9bn v s +$26bn in the previous week). Over the past 4 weeks there has now be over $52bn into equities" (EPFR)
Just summer
The stock market has shown a long-term tendency to perform less well during the summer months of June/July/August than during the rest of the year.
Source: Sentiment Trader
Just keep on de-risking
Pension funds have continued to de-risk equities in aggregate, though that pace has slowed from a peak reduction of equity exposure at around $227bn to around $113bn last year.
Source: Morgan Stanley
Just keep on de-grossing
1. US Fundamental L/S gross leverage fell for the 6th straight week by 3.4 points, reaching 190.8% (62nd percentile over three years).
2. US Fundamental L/S net leverage decreased by 2.0 points—the largest drop year-to-date—to 53.1% (42nd percentile over three years). (GS Prime)
Source: GS Prime
Just no draw-downs
The worst day in June for the S&P 500 has been a 0.31%drop. This would be smallest worst day of any month since Feb '17 at-0.26%.In fact, since 1928, this month would rank as the 5th smallest worst day of any month ever. (Ryan Detrick)
Just normally stretched
The GS position & sentiment indicator is at 1 sigma stretched, which in itself does not really mean anything and also actually a touch lower compared to where it has been during most of the spring.
Source: Goldman
Just fine in global macro
Global forex volatility, and global HY OAS - nothing to see here, we are fine, the world is just fine.
Source: JPM QDS
Just very normal percentiles
Very normal 3-year percentile figures for gross & nets.
Source: GS Prime
The regime is just fine
US BofA quant team "Regime Indicator" advanced small in the latest reading, but the key point that we are neither close to "too hot" nor close to "too cold" regime.
