"If you aren’t long, you’re short"
NASDAQ technicals
Trend channel perfection continues. Let's see how this plays out from here, but first big support is down at the break out levels around 17100. Resistance up around 18k, the upper part of the channel.
Source: Refinitiv
NASDAQ and rates
The gap between tech and rates continues to get wider as NASDAQ has "decoupled" from rates, but is that "sustainable"?
Source: Refinitiv
From put love to put hate
Somebody big caught badly wrong recently...
Source: Tradingview
Time to chill?
Citi market intelligence on the NASDAQ bull: Nasdaq futures positioning is at near three-year highs....with average position profits nearing 5%, these stretched positions are ripe for potential profit-taking, which may pose a challenge for further upward movement in the market.
Losing gamma from here
Dealers are long gamma right here, but note it decreases rapidly on both up or down 1-2% moves in the SPX.
Source: GS
"Free money"
ETFs with embedded options selling strategies continue to grow.
Source: Nomura
Hedge funds and Mag 7 love
Summing it up:
1. As of late 3Q23, hedge funds' net exposure to the "Mag 7" constituted over 25% of their total net exposure
2. During a broader thematic shift towards year-end, HFs substantially reduced their long exposure to the "Mag 7", becoming large net sellers in November and only rebuying about half of what was sold.
3. This reduction in exposure led to the Long/Short (L/S) ratio for these positions dropping to around 9-month lows by year-end, currently ranking in the 64th percentile over the last 12 months and the 40th percentile since 2020.
Source: MS
If you aren't long, you are short
JPM's Ron Adler summing up the "feeling":
"NVDA started the year +20% after TSM, and SMCI reminded people that AI was still a thing (recall NVDA was +240% last year because of AI). To the point of FOMO, what we saw in AI over the past few weeks lends credence to the adage that if you aren’t long, you’re short."
Just hold
On January 22nd in 1999 Nvidia went public. CEO Jensen Huang had 3 Million shares at IPO which was worth $59 Million after the first day of trading. Today those same shares are worth $85.8 BILLION.
Parabolic
Long or short, but sometimes you need to change perspective to weekly charts. NVDA's gap to the 200 weekly moving average is beyond wide.
