Exuberant breadth and magnificent selling

Don't fear shitty breadth

You should fear "exuberant" breadth. The percentage of SPX stocks trading above their 50 day moving average has exploded to the upside.

Source: Tradingview

Magnificent selling

Mag 7 have been net sold in 15/17 past sessions, almost only long sales, according to Goldman's PB. Cumulative net flow YTD is basically flat, having been as high as 50% this summer.

Source: GS

Down, but far from out

Mag 7 selling has been "impressive" lately, but overall exposure remains elevated if you zoom out.

Source: GS

Small is beautiful

Russell has continued marching higher, trading at the highest levels since early September, but don't forget Russell is the king of mean reversion trades. We are approaching resistance area slightly higher. RSI getting rather elevated...

Source: Refinitiv

More of the same

Low quality crap printing new recent highs, leaving "hot" QQQ way behind....

Source: Refinitiv

Maybe oil isn't that irrational?

Oil vs Citi economic surprise index...

Source: Refinitiv

Oil and rates

Go figure what these two assets are pricing...

Source: Refinitiv

Stretched

HSBC: "Our short-term sentiment and positioning indicators are more stretched now".

Source: HSBC

Fed decides

Swings in how the market is pricing Fed policy for 2024 have been the major driver of bonds and stocks this year.

Source: MS

Killing me softly

Skew continues moving lower on an almost daily basis. Market is boring and the crowd is pricing downside risk "confidently". Use this opportunity to look for hedges/downside speculative trades via options (more here).

Source: Refinitiv

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