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The dollar is stuck in the doldrums, with bearish narratives piling up fast. But with positioning stretched and sentiment one-sided, it's worth asking how much weakness is already priced in.

EURUSD longer term chart right at the big negative trend line. The 200 weekly moving average is sloping negatively still...and the the FX pair has done nothing since 2015. FX is a relative game, but getting excited about the euro here looks like a late short term trade.