The Daily Wrap

The trigger

DXY is holding above the psychological 100 level, but the real battleground remains the 100.5 area. The dollar has been trapped in essentially the same range for more than a year, meaning a clean break above resistance risks creating a vacuum higher as positioning and technicals start catching up.

The 200-day moving average is curling higher again, adding to the bullish setup. We are not there yet, but a convincing close above 100.5 could turn into a much bigger squeeze than most are currently pricing.