why you would not worry about august seasonality
At this point, everyone has seen this picture of August seasonality. The counter would be:
(1) Nothing about the above is 'new', and complacency appears quite low
(2) SPX just finished a sixth consecutive month higher = strength leads to more strength
(3) Semis (SOXX) closed the week at fresh ATHs on a daily / weekly / monthly-basis = historically, a decent lead indicator(4) Maybe most significant, GDP is growing at +6.5% but monetary policy is being pumped out at 3x what it was during the GFC(5) 'Seasonal' weakness in August only sets up a bigger / more sustainable move higher in the fall(6) The market already corrected on COVID once, it’s unlikely going to be ‘the‘ reason again(7) How worrisome can breadth be if all of Big Tech just fell / has been stuck, but indices remain on highs?(8) 25% of the market is represented by the most stable + predictable businesses in the world
(1) Nothing about the above is 'new', and complacency appears quite low
(2) SPX just finished a sixth consecutive month higher = strength leads to more strength
(3) Semis (SOXX) closed the week at fresh ATHs on a daily / weekly / monthly-basis = historically, a decent lead indicator(4) Maybe most significant, GDP is growing at +6.5% but monetary policy is being pumped out at 3x what it was during the GFC(5) 'Seasonal' weakness in August only sets up a bigger / more sustainable move higher in the fall(6) The market already corrected on COVID once, it’s unlikely going to be ‘the‘ reason again(7) How worrisome can breadth be if all of Big Tech just fell / has been stuck, but indices remain on highs?(8) 25% of the market is represented by the most stable + predictable businesses in the world
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