Bitcoin - what about some 2017 seasonality?

Serious institutional money buying bitcoin, it moves according to Metcalfe's Law, sky is the limit, inflation hedge etc are all arguments by bitcoin bulls made over the past months. We have even had CEOs buying bitcoins for their shareholders instead of developing the business. Sure, as a trade it has been great so far, but a company should be more than a big bet on bitcoin in order to exist, or? As we have been arguing over past weeks when it comes to bitcoin, the biggest factor of them all is the human psychology. Yes, we are all high tech, but the human mind remains very much the same, especially when it comes to greed and fear. You can't rationalize these emotions. Bitcoin remains a high volatility asset and people have problems managing volatility as they lack risk management methods for downside volatility. Let's see where this goes, but should the 2017 analogy kick in, many will quickly learn they became long term investors as they lacked risk management skills when stuff goes against them. Second chart shows what we pointed out over the Christmas and NY weekends. Huge moves higher over both long weekends were "accomplished" on very little volumes. Do you think anyone with big longs might have been printing offers during those weekends? Open interest and positioning is at new record levels when it comes to bitcoin, people are all in. Many have been mentioning momentum strategies in bitcoin taking it higher, but as we pointed out last week, momentum strategies do not have a "fundamental" bias, they trade momentum, up as well as down. Last chart shows JPM's updated version of their momentum model in bitcoin. This will roll over should bitcoin continue lower. Could we end up with a similar set up we saw in 2019, when bitcoin topped at approx 13k halved in a few months? Lately we have read several fascinating stories on possible frauds etc in this space. We leave to you to decide, but this is one of those stories full of charts worth a read...link here.