PMI Peak? Fasten some seatbelts

Rising Rates, Falling PMIs – Past as Prologue: MS Research examines two prior periods of rising rates and falling PMIs (1998-2001 and 2010-11). Conclusion: European Capital Goods can sell off ~30%-45% from these mega-peaks. The challenge in 1Q22 is whether PMIs are due for a hard or soft landing – ie. whether this is more like 2010 or 2011… What's Different This Time? (1) Rates are much lower, inflation is much higher. (2) Industrial market capitalisation is equivalent to 9.9% of European GDP vs. 6.4% (Dotcom) and 5.5% (GFC) – from a valuation perspective, this looks like the mother of all industrial bubbles. (3) The spread between Quality Defensives and Cyclicals is ~80% compared with a long-term average of closer to ~30%: how far can Cyclicals really fall, from such low levels?