What is the recession probability implied by all these curves?

Everybody is an expert on the inversion of the curves and knows recession is here. BofA asks what is the implied risk of a recession based on the historical experience? Chart 1 shows the 2/10 curve, chart 2 the 3m/10y curve. The investment bank points out that the 3m/10 y curve is a better predictor of an imminent recessions, which currently is low, but they also write: "However, should the Fed deliver what is priced in and if the yield curve follows the forwards, it would start to signal an elevated level of probability". Chart 3 "shows that along the forward curve, the 1y ahead recession probability implied by the 3m10y curve rises to about 40% a year from now (so for an early 2024 recession), slightly higher than implied by other curves."
You decide...