What is the recession probability implied by all these curves?
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Everybody is an expert on the inversion of the curves and knows recession is here. BofA asks what is the implied risk of a recession based on the historical experience? Chart 1 shows the 2/10 curve, chart 2 the 3m/10y curve. The investment bank points out that the 3m/10 y curve is a better predictor of an imminent recessions, which currently is low, but they also write: "However, should the Fed deliver what is priced in and if the yield curve follows the forwards, it would start to signal an elevated level of probability". Chart 3 "shows that along the forward curve, the 1y ahead recession probability implied by the 3m10y curve rises to about 40% a year from now (so for an early 2024 recession), slightly higher than implied by other curves."
You decide...
You decide...