GS: first revision down in inflation

Past peak inflation! The tide is turning!...Well at least Goldman now says that the inflation news likewise looks a touch better. Jan Hatzius: "For the first time since the price surge started in early 2021, we have revised our end-2022 core PCE forecasts down rather than up and are now more confident that both headline and core inflation have peaked in year-on-year terms. Admittedly, much of the upcoming decline reflects “base effects” as last year’s increases start to drop out of the 12-month calculation. But even on a sequential basis, our GS core trimmed PCE index—which eliminates extreme upside and downside moves from the distribution of ex-food and energy price changes—slowed to just 2% (annualized) in March. This makes the upcoming inflation releases for April—where we expect a partial rebound in the core CPI to 0.4% (not annualized)—very important for assessing the underlying trend"