The Bears Have All The Evidence. Except Price

Rates are screaming, equities are refusing to listen

The 10-year is technically stretched, bond vol has exploded and tech CDS are flashing stress, yet NDX remains remarkably resilient. Part of the answer may be that the rates shock is being driven by growth and real yields rather than inflation, while the AI demand story continues to hold up.

The disconnect is getting extreme. For now, the tape still wins, but the cost of hedging that resilience remains unusually cheap.