Beyond Chips: U.S. And China Enter Robotaxi Race As Physical AI Emerges 

Last week, Goldman analysts led by Mark Delaney laid out a detailed roadmap for clients on how autonomous vehicles could reshape America's highways through the 2030s, with a particular focus on "the impact of AI on profit pools."

In a separate report, Goldman analysts led by Allen Chang covered the rapid expansion of China's robotaxi fleet, highlighting how both superpowers now appear to be locked in a race to automate roads and highways. 

"We expect a strong ramp up of robotaxis in China, with the robotaxi fleet in China growing from 5k in 2025 to 14k in 2026E (+195% YoY)," Chang began the note.

He pointed out that this update on China's robotaxi and robotruck fleet indicates that "Commercialization is speeding up, with several players achieving city-level break-even."

"We are raising our robotaxi forecasts for 2025-2035E by 7%-25%. By 2035E, robotaxis should account for 36% of all ride-sharing vehicles," Chang said.

The report also introduces forecasts for overseas robotaxi and robotruck markets, highlighting international expansion as an increasingly important revenue driver for Chinese companies, including WeRide, Pony AI, and Baidu.

Chang forecasts that robotrucks could emerge as a long-term growth market, with China's fleet rising from 8,000 in 2026 to 760,000 by 2035.

The overall outlook for AV fleets in China suggests rapid deployment, growing fleet density, and broader global scaling. The analyst noted their stock plays on this emerging trend: robotaxi and robotruck players include WeRide (Initiation), Pony AI, Didi, and Baidu.

Circling back to Goldman analyst Delaney's report on the U.S. robotaxi market last week. He noted that the market is set to top $19 billion by 2030, up from a prior forecast of $7 billion, and continue rising to $48 billion by 2035.

Taken together, the two reports suggest the AI race is no longer confined to data centers and chip stacks. It is now moving into the physical world, where autonomous vehicles, robotaxis, and AI-powered freight networks are emerging as the next major frontier between the two superpowers. On a side note, these AI-powered vehicles can be dual-use and will eventually end up on modern battlefields.

Professional subscribers can read the full China Robotaxi and US Robotaxi notes at our new Marketdesk.ai portal.