Luigi Mangione: Fact & Fiction

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26 year-old UPenn graduate Luigi Mangione was charged last night in New York for murder in connection with the killing of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson.

Social media has been swirling with updates on the case, including a YouTube channel purportedly belonging to Mangione, documents alleged to be his manifesto, and a Luigi memecoin which rose thousands of percent Monday.

Polymarket On The Case

In breaking news situations, Polymarket launches rapid-reaction prediction markets to decode fact from fiction almost instantly. Here is what they are telling us about the situation:

Manifesto Released by Friday?

Verdict: Unlikely

Polymarket users are placing 16% odds that the manifesto is released by Friday. In similar situations, manifestos not released by the perpetrators themselves, like the New York Times publication of the Unabomber manifesto and the 2023 Nashville school shooter document, have taken months to come out.

These odds imply that a Substack post circulating Monday claiming to be from Mangione, which cited his mother’s chronic pain as a motive for the killing, is likely not authentic.

In addition, CNN reported that the manifesto recovered from Mangione allegedly included the text "these parasites had it coming" and "I do apologize for any strife and trauma, but it had to be done,” however these phrases are not found in the Substack document.

What Will the Manifesto Say?

A market was launched on Polymarket to predict the contents of Mangione’s alleged manifesto. The most likely terms are “deny, defend, depose” - words reported to have been etched on bullet casings found at the shooting scene, along with “Biden” and “preexisting condition.”

However no term is currently trading at greater than 15% odds. This reflects the market’s skepticism that the manifesto will be released soon, as the markets will resolve to “no” if the document is not released by year-end.

Mangione Pleads Guilty in New York?
Verdict: 60% chance he pleads guilty; 71% chance he’s extradited this year

Mangioni was charged overnight in New York City for the murder, and the market believes it is very likely that he will be transported there to face charges before year’s end, and more likely than not (60% odds) he pleads guilty.

Will Another @PepMangione Video be Released by December 11?

Verdict: Not Likely

On Monday, X accounts were discussing a YouTube channel that released a video purporting to be from Mangione teasing the release of a subsequent video on Wednesday, December 11. However the channel was quickly removed by YouTube.

Polymarket users are currently assigning just a 1% probability that the channel is real and 2% odds that he will tweet again by Friday.

Mangioni Was a Lone Wolf with a 3-d Printed Gun?

Verdict: 95% + chances

The market believes that two pieces of reporting - that Mangioni acted alone with a 3-d printed gun - are highly likely to be correct, with a greater than 95% confidence.

Motivation: Denied Claims?

Verdict: 64% Likely

As we await the manifesto’s possible release, debates continue over Mangioni’s possible motives. Whether he was motivated by denied insurance claims is one of the most volatile markets on Polymarket at the moment, with odds swinging from 15% to over 80% within a 24-hour period.

The market is currently trading at 64% odds that denied claims will be established as the motive before May 31, 2025.