Your Guide To The 2024 Presidential Primary Season
Authored by Nathan Worcester via The Epoch Times,
As the new year kicks off, political campaigns hit top gear to keep their candidate in the race.
The early primaries and caucuses will certainly weed out struggling candidates, although the most likely major party nominees are already clear cut—President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump.
1. When Does Primary Season Start and End?
The first big in-person event will be Iowa’s Republican caucus, which will take place on Jan. 15, 2024.
The state’s Democratic presidential preference voting technically starts earlier, as the party has chosen to use 100 percent mail-in voting this year.
Iowa Democrats can request voting cards from Jan. 12 through Feb. 19, and completed cards must be postmarked by March 5, with the results being released later that same day, also known as “Super Tuesday.”
Iowa Democrats will hold their in-person caucuses the same day as Republicans, on Jan. 15, but they'll conduct only local party business. It’s a compromise with the Democratic National Committee’s (DNC) commitment to make South Carolina’s primary, which will be held on Feb. 3, the first in the nation.
Although the DNC wanted South Carolina’s primary to come first, New Hampshire’s first-in-the-nation status is enshrined in its state constitution, and the state has held fast to its tradition.
Both Republicans and Democrats will hold their first primaries on Jan. 23, in New Hampshire.
A woman takes a photo at a Make America Great Again Rally with former President Donald Trump, in Manchester, N.H., on April 27, 2023. (Joseph Prezioso/AFP via Getty Images)
President Joe Biden didn’t file to appear on New Hampshire’s Democratic primary ballot—and the state’s noncompliance with the DNC will likely mean that it receives fewer delegates during its summer convention in Chicago.
Presidential primary season ends on June 8, when Guam and the U.S. Virgin Islands stage their Democratic caucuses.
State primaries for other, nonpresidential, races continue through mid-September.
2. Will Trump Be on the Ballot?
Lawsuits in states across the country have challenged former President Donald Trump’s presence on GOP primary season ballots.
The lawsuits generally allege that he’s disqualified under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment. Passed after the Civil War, the amendment bars “insurrection[ists]” against the Constitution from taking office. It was originally meant to keep unreconstructed Confederates out of power. By 1872, Congress extended amnesty to most secessionists barred from office by the amendment with the Amnesty Act, which passed the Senate 38–2. A final amnesty bill for Confederates was enacted in 1898 during the McKinley administration.
So far, in Michigan, Arizona, and Colorado, judges have ruled that President Trump may remain on their state’s primary ballots.
Former President Donald Trump sits in the courtroom with his attorneys (L–R) Todd Blanche, Susan Necheles, Joe Tacopina, and Boris Epshteyn during his arraignment at the Manhattan Criminal Court in New York City on April 4, 2023. (Andrew Kelly-Pool/Getty Images)
A second ruling in Colorado, on Dec. 19 by the state’s Supreme Court, overturned the lower court’s decision and in a 4–3 decision, allowed President Trump to be removed from the state’s primary ballot. The U.S. Supreme Court is likely to take up the case and settle the issue.
3. What About Democrats Other Than Biden?
Marianne Williamson, Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.), and other minor Democrats are working to appear on ballots alongside President Biden.
Interestingly, in the case of the first-in-the-nation primary held in New Hampshire, President Biden’s name will be absent, as he didn’t file to appear on it.
In other states, however, the Democrat Party has left Ms. Williamson, Mr. Phillips, and other Democrats off the primary ballots. The congressman is challenging those maneuvers in Florida, Tennessee, and North Carolina. Democrats in Florida have gone as far as to cancel that state’s primary in favor of choosing President Biden to win.
(Left) Democratic presidential candidate Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.). (Right) Democratic presidential candidate, author Marianne Williamson. (Gaelen Morse/Getty Images, Sean Rayford/Getty Images)
4. What About Robert F. Kennedy Jr.?
Mr. Kennedy is running as an independent candidate, meaning he won’t appear on Democratic or Republican primary ballots.
As of December, he’s fighting to appear on general election ballots in each state for the Nov. 5 election.
5. Will Other Seats Be Up for Grabs?
It depends on your state. Check here to see if the presidential primary or caucus in your state takes place on the same day as the state primary or caucus.
In Alabama, for example, voters pick their preferred party candidates for president as well as other federal, state, and local candidates on March 5, with a state primary runoff scheduled for April 2, if it’s needed. But in Arizona, the March 19 presidential preference election takes place months before the state primary on Aug. 6.
6. Are Caucuses Different From Primaries?
Yes. In typical caucuses, such as the Iowa Republican caucus scheduled for Jan. 15, political parties organize local events where delegates are chosen. The ultimate outcome is a set of delegates for one or more candidates. Those men and women will support those candidates at their party’s national convention in the summer of 2024.
The delegate selection process varies from state to state and across parties. In Iowa, Republicans will gather to vote at one of more than 1,600 precinct locations across the state’s 99 counties.
Primaries are more like typical elections. Voters go to a polling place and cast a secret ballot for the candidates of their choice. Primaries are organized by state governments, not by state parties.
Guests attend a fireside chat campaign event with Republican presidential candidate Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in Bettendorf, Iowa, on Dec. 18, 2023. (Scott Olson/Getty Images)
Early voting, absentee voting, and mail-in voting may also be options in these races. Notably, Iowa’s Democratic presidential caucus will be conducted with mail-in “presidential preference cards” and no in-person voting at all.
Depending on the state, primaries and caucuses may be open to voters who aren’t registered with the party for which they wish to select a candidate.
7. When Will My Primary or Caucus Take Place?
You can find the dates here. If you intend to vote, make a plan sooner rather than later. You might also have to register with a particular party to participate—although that varies from state to state.
8. Will New Hampshire Hold the 1st Primary?
Yes. Although the DNC wanted South Carolina’s primary to come first, New Hampshire’s first-in-the-nation status is enshrined in its state constitution, and the state has held fast to its tradition.
Both Republicans and Democrats will hold their first primaries on Jan. 23, in New Hampshire. Democrats will hold their South Carolina primary on Feb. 3.
President Biden didn’t file to appear on New Hampshire’s Democratic primary ballot—and the state’s noncompliance with the DNC will likely mean that it receives fewer delegates during the party’s summer convention in Chicago.
Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden speaks at a rally after signing his official paperwork for the New Hampshire primary at the New Hampshire State House in Concord, N.H., on Nov. 8, 2019. (Scott Eisen/Getty Images)
9. Can I Vote in Both the Republican and Democrat Presidential Primaries?
No. You can choose only one candidate for the presidential primary or caucus, and depending on your state, you may have to be registered with that party to vote in that race.
10. How Can I Vote if I’m Registered Independent?
It depends on your state.
Some presidential primaries and caucuses are closed, meaning that you have to be registered with a particular party to vote in its presidential primary or caucus.
Others run the gamut from semi-closed to fully open; in the latter case, independent voters need not register with a party to participate in its primary or caucus. The Open Primaries website has a comprehensive breakdown of the rules across the country.
11. Who Is Likely to Win the Republican Nomination?
As of late December, President Trump is ahead in the polls and strongly favored, according to aggregated polling data on RealClearPolitics.
While he seems likely to win the primary, entrenched opposition from Never Trump Republicans and various legal issues could still derail his nomination.
Former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis are vying for second place in important early states, with businessman Vivek Ramaswamy and others trailing behind.
(Left) Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump. (Center) Former U.N. ambassador and Republican presidential hopeful Nikki Haley. (Right) Republican presidential candidate Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. (Scott Eisen/Getty Images, Joseph Prezioso/AFP via Getty Images, Scott Olson/Getty Images)
12. Who Is Likely to Win the Democrats’ Nomination?
President Biden, the incumbent, isn’t seriously threatened by any of his Democratic challengers in the polls, particularly after Mr. Kennedy switched to run as an independent candidate and not as a Democrat.
If President Biden fails to appear in the general election, it would stem from unusual but not impossible circumstances; if, for instance, illness or some other event leads him to bow out in the next few months, a brokered Democratic convention could ensue. That might elevate the likes of Vice President Kamala Harris or California Gov. Gavin Newsom to the hot seat.
13. What Happens at a Convention?
National conventions are the place where both parties develop their platforms and where major politicians deliver speeches. Most importantly, they’re where the delegates from each state and territory choose their party’s presidential candidate.
In modern times, one candidate typically racks up enough delegates during the primaries for his or her status as the nominee to be clear long before the convention.
But before the widespread adoption of presidential primaries during the late 1960s and early 1970s, conventions were often the scene of long, drawn-out battles among different political factions. In 1924, it took the Democrats 103 ballots to choose their nominee, John W. Davis.
The upcoming Republican National Convention will be held in Milwaukee in July 2024. The Democratic National Convention will take place a few weeks later, in August, about 100 miles south, in Chicago.
14. What Is a Brokered Convention?
A brokered convention is one in which one candidate fails to command a majority of delegates during the first vote, or ballot.
It opens up the prospect of additional ballots and, in the case of the Democratic National Convention, participation by super delegates.
Brokered conventions weren’t uncommon before the era of mass primaries, but the last that occurred was in 1952, when Republicans and Democrats alike took multiple votes to select as their nominees Dwight D. Eisenhower and Adlai Stevenson II, respectively.
Sen. Richard Nixon (2ndL), Dwight D. Eisenhower (2ndR), and their wives attend the Republican National Convention in Chicago, on July 12, 1952. (I/AFP via Getty Images)
15. What Happens on Super Tuesday?
Super Tuesday will occur on March 5, 2024.
Super Tuesday can make a big positive (or negative) difference for campaigns, as many states and territories hold caucuses and primaries that day, meaning that many delegates are off the table afterward. In 2020, it elevated the position of then-former Vice President Biden. In 2016, then-candidate Trump won by a large margin on Super Tuesday, taking seven out of 11 states.
States and territories holding elections on Super Tuesday include: Alabama, Alaska Republican presidential caucuses, American Samoa presidential caucuses, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Iowa Democratic caucus mail vote, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah Democratic presidential primary, and Republican presidential caucuses in Vermont and Virginia.
A voting sign sits outside the Burlington Electric Department in Burlington, Vt., on March 2, 2020. (Alex Wong/Getty Images)
16. What Are Delegates?
Delegates are people who are sent to a political party’s national convention to help select a nominee on behalf of their party’s primary voters.
Some delegates have to support particular candidates based on the outcomes of primary or caucus elections. Others aren’t tied to specific candidates prior to the convention.
Depending on the state, Republican primaries and caucuses can award delegates proportionally, through a winner-take-all formula, or through some other approach, which can be complicated.
Minimum and maximum voting thresholds also enter the picture in many states. In Texas, for example, candidates must get at least 20 percent of the vote to get any delegates—and if a candidate gets 50 percent or more of the vote, he or she takes all of the state’s delegates.
Democrats must meet a 15 percent threshold to get delegates, although depending on the contest, it may apply to a congressional district rather than the state as a whole.
17. What Are Super Delegates?
They’re delegates that aren’t pledged to a specific candidate when they arrive at their party’s national convention; they’re also called unbound delegates by Republicans.
While super delegates have historically played a critical role in the Democratic presidential nomination process, their overwhelming support for Hillary Clinton over Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) at the 2016 Democratic Convention made them a point of contention in recent times. Pledged delegates also favored Ms. Clinton, though by a much narrower margin.
Although Democrats have retained super delegates to this day, reforms passed in 2018 have excluded them from the first ballot. They would now only come into play in the event of a brokered convention.
On the Republican side, fewer than 5 percent of delegates will be unbound at the GOP’s national convention in Milwaukee.
Sen. Bernie Sanders (D-Vt.) acknowledges the crowd before delivering remarks at the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia on July 25, 2016. (Aaron P. Bernstein/Getty Images)
18. How Many Delegates Does a Candidate Need to Win?
They need support from most of the delegates at the convention. Again, one candidate typically commands a large majority prior to the end of the primary season.
The Green Papers estimates that the winning Republican candidate will need roughly 1,215 delegates out of 2,429 total delegates.
The same website estimates that the Democrat candidate will require 1,973 delegates during a first ballot. That doesn’t count unpledged Democratic delegates, who would come into play in any subsequent ballots. All told, there are expected to be a total of 4,691 Democratic delegates, far more than the estimated 2,429 total Republican delegates.
19. Where Do I Vote?
It could differ from your regular polling place.
You can usually find the answer on the website of the party of your preferred candidate, or on your state’s Secretary of State elections website. Here’s where you can find it for New Hampshire, for example.
If you can’t make it to the caucus site or primary polling place, you might be able to participate through early in-person voting or mail-in voting, or by casting an absentee ballot.
Check the specific rules for your primary or caucus to see what options are available where you vote.
20. Can Democrats Vote in Republican Primaries and Vice Versa?
In some states, yes; in others, no.
In states with fully open presidential primaries, people don’t have to choose a candidate from the same party under which they registered to vote. That means, for example, a registered Democrat, independent, or unaffiliated voter can vote for a Republican candidate in the primary.
Voters cast their ballots at an elementary school during the U.S. midterm election in Midlothian, Va., on Nov. 8, 2022. (Ryan M. Kelly/AFP via Getty Images)
Other states’ contests are partially open or partially closed, imposing greater restrictions on voters.
Some states hold closed primaries, which limit a voter to choosing a candidate within the same party under which they’re registered to vote. Of course, registered members of a particular party can always vote for a candidate from a different party in the November general election.
Confusingly, the rules for state primaries can differ from those of presidential primaries within the same state. The National Conference of State Legislatures website breaks it down.
21. Can I Vote in the General Election If I Skipped the Primaries?
Yes.
22. Are Caucuses or Primaries Ever Contested or Controversial?
Yes. The 2020 Iowa Democratic Caucus was famously chaotic, with results delayed by days as multiple campaigns challenged results in various precincts. Mr. Sanders edged out his rivals in the popular vote, but Pete Buttigieg came out ahead in state delegate equivalents.
The Brookings Institution, a liberal think tank, dubbed the caucus a “tragedy.”
Democratic presidential candidate Pete Buttigieg speaks during a rally in Oelwein, Iowa, on Feb. 1, 2020. (Win McNamee/Getty Images)
23. Do I Need to Be Registered to Vote in the Primary or Caucus?
Generally, yes, but it varies. Some states, including Illinois, permit same-day registration for primary voters, while North Dakota doesn’t require voter registration.
The National Conference of State Legislatures website outlines same-day voter registration law state by state.
24. Am I Allowed to Vote in 1 State’s Primary and Another’s General?
If you move in between, it’s possible, but it also depends on the rules in your state(s) and when you move. Out-of-state college students with dual residency across multiple states might be expected to exercise this option—for example, if they don’t register in the state where they’re going to school until after their home state’s primary or caucus.
25. Could Newsom Be the Democratic Nominee?
California’s Democratic governor won’t be on any primary or caucus ballots. Mr. Newsom has repeatedly emphasized that he isn’t running for president, telling Mr. DeSantis during their recent debate that “neither of us will be the nominee for our party in 2024.”
While that declaration would seem to rule him out, others have noted that there are other avenues open to the well-connected wine merchant. Specifically, as analyst Chuck DeVore told The Epoch Times in November, if President Biden leaves the field before Election Day, Mr. Newsom could win through a brokered Democratic convention in summer 2024.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom speaks during a campaign event with Vice President Kamala Harris in San Leandro, Calif., on Sept. 8, 2021. (Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)
26. Will There Be Any More Debates?
Yes. CNN will host a Republican presidential debate in Iowa on Jan. 10, just days ahead of the Jan. 15 GOP caucus. The network will hold another Republican presidential debate ahead of the New Hampshire primary, which takes place on Jan. 23.
In keeping with his absence from the first four debates, there’s no sign that President Trump will participate.
After the primaries, there are three presidential debates scheduled and one vice presidential debate, with the first one on Sept. 16 and the last on Oct. 9.
27. Do Other Countries Have Primaries?
Yes, many countries do, although there’s great variation from place to place; for example, some primaries are organized by political parties, while others are held by the state.
Countries ranging from South Korea to Poland to Canada hold primaries or primary-like elections.
28. Can Primaries and Caucuses Be Canceled?
Yes. Florida, for example, has canceled its Democratic primary after omitting all names but President Biden’s from its proposed ballot. The situation isn’t without precedent from both major parties.
In 2020, multiple states canceled their Republican primaries or caucuses in the midst of President Trump’s reelection campaign. The same thing happened with several Democratic primaries in 2012, when then-President Barack Obama was seeking reelection.
29. Could Trump’s Legal Trials Make a Difference?
Not so far, but it’s hard to say for sure. The events now unfolding are unprecedented in the history of U.S. presidential contests, so it’s difficult to predict.
So far, President Trump has mostly withstood attempts to remove him from primary season ballots on 14th Amendment grounds.
If there are any major rulings in his criminal trials before the Republican National Convention in July, that could complicate things, particularly if unbound GOP delegates are marshaled against the former president following a close primary season, or if other delegates revolt against him after the first ballot at the convention.
Former president Donald Trump arrives at the courtroom at the Manhattan Criminal Court in New York on April 4, 2023. (Ed Jones/AFP via Getty Images)
30. When Is a Winner Likely to Emerge During the GOP Primaries?
President Trump’s strong lead over his rivals means that support could crystalize earlier rather than later. In 2016, the future president became his party’s presumptive nominee by early May after he won Indiana’s Republican primary and his chief rival, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), dropped out.
This time, as of mid-December, the president is far ahead of his competitors in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada in polls aggregated by RealClearPolitics.
31. What’s Happening With the Nevada GOP Primary?
The state will hold both a state-organized Republican primary and a caucus organized by the Nevada Republican Party. Most, but not all, big-name Republican candidates are boycotting that primary, which takes place on Feb. 6, in favor of the caucus, which takes place on Feb. 8.
The caucus has been, up until recently, a decades-old tradition in the Silver State. But Nevada’s Democrat-controlled state Legislature adopted a primary system after the 2020 election. The state’s Republican Party filed a lawsuit against the state to retain its caucus.
Nevada Secretary of State Cisco Aguilar said his state is required to hold a primary once two candidates register for it. By October, two Republicans had registered. Ms. Haley opted for the primary ballot, along with several little-known candidates.
“Candidates that chose to appear on the state-run primary ballot did so knowing that decision meant they could not earn delegates by appearing on the caucus ballots,” the state GOP website states.
President Trump, Mr. DeSantis, Mr. Ramaswamy, Texas businessman and pastor Ryan Binkley, and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie are on the caucus ballot.
Nevada will also hold a Democratic presidential primary on Feb. 8.