What Is The Impact Of RFK Jr. Remaining On The Ballot In Swing States?
Authored by Jeff Louderbeck via The Epoch Times,
For months, Democratic National Committee-backed lawsuits were focused on preventing independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. from appearing on ballots in multiple states.
The party’s strategy abruptly shifted on Aug. 23 when Kennedy announced he would suspend his campaign in battleground states and urge his supporters to vote for former President Donald Trump in those states.
“If you live in a blue state, you can vote for me without harming or helping President Trump or Vice President Harris. In red states, the same will apply,” he said.
Kennedy said that if he remained on the ballot in swing states, he “would likely hand the election over to the Democrats, with whom I disagree on the most existential issues.”
Since then, Democrat-supported legal action has been filed in swing states where Kennedy has moved to have his name withdrawn from the ballot. The objective is to keep him on the ballot because reports have shown Kennedy will take more votes away from Trump than Vice President Kamala Harris.
Kennedy has sought to have his name taken off the ballot in 10 states.
On Sept. 6, a Michigan appeals court ruled that Kennedy’s name be removed from the general election ballot, overturning a lower court ruling that kept him on the ballot after he withdrew from the race.
Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, a Democrat, said last month that Kennedy’s name would remain on the ballot because state law does not permit minor party candidates who are nominated at a state convention to withdraw.
Kennedy gained ballot access in some states by accepting a nomination from third parties. He qualified for Michigan’s general election ballot as a candidate of the Natural Law Party.
In 2020, President Joe Biden defeated Trump by around 154,000 votes in Michigan.
Also, on Sept. 6, a North Carolina Court of Appeals panel unanimously approved Kennedy’s request to stop the mailing of absentee ballots and reprint them without his name.
In North Carolina, Harris is trying to become the first Democrat presidential candidate to win since 2008. Trump defeated Hillary Clinton by 3.5 percent in 2016 and edged Biden by 1.3 percent in 2020.
Earlier this year, when Kennedy was mounting an effort to get on the ballot in all 50 states and the District of Columbia as an independent, the state’s board of elections twice delayed authorizing ballot access to the We The People political party, which Kennedy’s campaign established in January in select states.
Absentee ballots were scheduled to be mailed on Sept. 6 before the appeals court approved Kennedy’s request to mandate that election officials remove his name.
People watch on a monitor as Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announces he is suspending his presidential campaign at a news conference on Aug 23, 2024, in Phoenix. AP Photo/Darryl Webb
North Carolina was initially set to be the first state to kick off early voting for the Nov. 5 election. It is now unclear when those voters will receive their ballots.
State officials have not decided if they will appeal the decision to a higher state court.
Wisconsin is currently the only state rejecting Kennedy’s withdrawal effort.
On Aug. 27, the Wisconsin Elections Commission voted 5-1 to keep Kennedy’s name on the state’s ballot. Kennedy filed a lawsuit challenging the ruling on Sept. 3.
Biden defeated Trump by around 21,000 votes in Wisconsin in 2020.
Speculation is mounting about the impact of Kennedy’s presence on the ballot in battleground states.
As of Sept. 6, Harris leads Trump, 47.3 percent to 44.2 percent, according to FiveThirtyEight’s average of polls.
Conducted in early July and early August, a Pew Research study indicated that Kennedy supporters were “far less likely to say they were highly motivated to vote in the presidential election.”
In August, 72 percent of Trump supporters and 70 percent of Harris supporters said they were “extremely motivated” to vote, while only 23 percent of RFK Jr.’s backers felt the same, the research pointed out.
Pew Research’s nationwide surveys indicate that following Biden’s decision to leave the presidential race and endorse Harris, 39 percent of Kennedy’s supporters continued to support Kennedy. Of those who changed their preference, 39 percent shifted to Harris and 20 percent to Trump.
Kennedy told The Epoch Times that internal polling showed, if he left the race in the swing states, 57 percent of his backers would shift their support to Trump, which played a role in his decision to leave the race and endorse Trump because he saw no path to victory.
Wes Farno, a Republican strategist in Ohio, told The Epoch Times that he believes Kennedy’s decision to suspend his campaign in battleground states and encourage his supporters to vote for Trump could swing the election “3 percent to 4 percent” in the former president’s favor.
“Even if a small number of Kennedy supporters vote for Trump, that could have a significant impact in states that are tightly contested,” Farno said. “Those are people who would have otherwise voted for Kennedy, and based on what he said his internal polling showed, many of those voters will support Trump and not Harris. That shift could make a difference in swing states.”
David Carlucci, a former New York state senator who is now a Democratic strategist, told The Epoch Times that Trump “gave in to RFK Jr.” by accepting his endorsement and discussing a potential role in his administration.
Carlucci added that he agrees with analysts who believe that Kennedy’s exit from the race and backing of Trump “will have minimal impact by Election Day.”
Kennedy announced his candidacy to challenge Biden for the 2024 Democratic Party’s presidential nomination in April 2023.
He said he faced multiple roadblocks from the DNC and eventually chose to run as an independent in October 2023.
After Kennedy announced he would run as an independent, DNC officials said that he was a “stalking horse” to “prop up” Trump.
Earlier this year, the DNC announced the creation of a team to combat third-party and independent presidential candidates.
Veteran Democrat strategist Lis Smith was hired to spearhead an aggressive communication plan to combat Kennedy, independent Cornel West, and Green Party nominee Jill Stein.
In the weeks preceding Kennedy’s decision to suspend his campaign in battleground states and endorse Trump, he found himself in courtrooms across the country testifying in DNC-backed lawsuits that were filed to keep him off the ballot.
Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. appears to testify at a ballot access hearing in Mineola, N.Y. Jeff Louderback/Epoch Times
The Aug. 23 press conference, in which he announced he would back Trump, was held on a Friday. Earlier that week, he appeared in Pennsylvania and New York regarding ballot access hearings.
Kennedy criticized the Democrats for aligning with Biden and then nominating Harris without a primary during his Aug. 23 address.
He also chastised the DNC for backing lawsuits in multiple states aimed at blocking him from the ballot.
On Aug. 26, Kennedy told The Epoch Times that Trump would make a series of announcements that other Democrats are joining his campaign.
The next day, Trump’s campaign confirmed that Kennedy and former Democratic Hawaii Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard accepted the former president’s offer to join his transition team if he wins in November.
Kennedy told The Epoch Times on Aug. 26 that he would actively campaign for Trump and that there is no defined role he would have in a Trump administration.
He says fighting chronic disease, improving children’s health, and addressing corporate capture of government agencies are his top priorities.
Kennedy joined Trump on stage at a rally in Glendale, Arizona, on Aug. 23 when the former president announced he would appoint Kennedy to a panel investigating the rise in chronic disease in children if he won his White House bid.
While Kennedy said on Aug. 23 that he still encouraged supporters to vote for him in non-battleground states, he said in an email on Sept. 6, “No matter what state you live in, I urge you to vote for Donald Trump. The reason is that is the only way we can get me and everything I stand for into Washington DC and fulfill the mission that motivated my campaign.”
Kennedy added that it will be a “close election” and “a disputed election result would be a disaster for our divided nation.”
Kennedy’s online messaging has shifted messaging away from “Declare Your Independence,” even though he will appear on the ballot in many states.
His website now centers around the “Make America Healthy Again” campaign and reiterates his belief on how to accomplish that objective.
“A Vote For Trump is a Vote For Kennedy,” a banner atop the home page reads.