Republicans Have The Slimmest House Majority Since 1931, What It Means

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

If Republicans cannot elect a Speaker, Senator Chuck Grassley could be the next President.

The Next Speaker

If no one quickly wins the gavel, certification of President-elect Trump’s victory could be delayed. Rules then would make Senator Chuck Grassley the president.

That is possible, but highly unlikely in practice, explained below.

However, at least one Republican is a confirmed no for Johnson. A second no would do Johnson in.

How Mike Johnson Could Lose the House Speaker Vote

The Wall Street Journal reports How Mike Johnson Could Lose the House Speaker Vote.

What happens on Jan. 3, and how does the speaker vote work?

Under the Constitution, newly elected and returning House members gather in the Capitol. First they have to elect a speaker, which requires a majority of those who vote for a particular person—abstaining or voting “present” doesn’t count in the calculations. The declared candidate for Republicans, who will hold a narrow majority in the new session, is incumbent Johnson. Democrats back Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D., N.Y.).

If no one receives a majority of votes cast for a named candidate, more ballots will be held until someone wins a majority. When Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R., Calif.) ran for speaker in January 2023, he wasn’t able to secure the gavel until the early hours of the morning on Jan. 7, after four grueling days of voting and 15 ballots.

One Republican—Rep. Thomas Massie (R., Ky.)—has said he would oppose Johnson, and several others have said they are undecided. All it would take to cost Johnson the speakership is for one more House Republican to vote for a different person, assuming all Democrats oppose him. But it is unclear whether any other candidate could win a majority.

It took three weeks of failed votes for other candidates before House Republicans elected Johnson in the fall of 2023.

What happens if no speaker is quickly elected?

Without a speaker, members can’t be sworn in, and the House can’t organize itself. A law dating back to the first Congress in 1789 requires the election of the speaker to precede any other business, including the swearing in of new members, the formation of committees and the passage of any legislation. The failure to elect a speaker could also delay the certification of Trump’s Electoral College victory, which by law is scheduled for Jan. 6.

Who are the key players in the speaker vote on Jan. 3?

Trump: Trump endorsed Johnson for speaker, boosting his prospects. But the president-elect’s support isn’t a guarantee that Johnson can lock up the needed votes. Johnson has been calling skeptical Republican lawmakers, trying to tamp down their concerns about his leadership.

Massie: Massie said he respects Trump but wasn’t swayed by his endorsement of Johnson. As long as Massie is determined to vote for someone else for speaker, Johnson can afford to lose only one more vote. This math gives all other members of the Republican conference enormous leverage to make demands of Johnson in exchange for their votes.

Rep. Andy Harris (R., Md.): Harris, who chairs the conservative House Freedom Caucus, has said he is uncertain of how he will vote. Harris has concerns about government spending, and he wants Johnson to commit to structural changes, including an overhaul of the amendment process, and giving priority to internal GOP debate before bills are introduced on the floor. He told The Wall Street Journal that a “significant number” of House Freedom Caucus members are similarly unconvinced.

Rep. Chip Roy (R., Texas): Roy is a prominent member of the House Freedom Caucus, who, like Massie, endorsed Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis over Trump in the 2024 GOP presidential primary. Roy helped lead opposition against a stopgap spending bill that Johnson negotiated with Democrats in December. He also opposed a slimmed-down version of the bill that included a debt-ceiling increase Trump wanted. He hasn’t said how he will vote for speaker.

Rep. Victoria Spartz (R., Ind.): Spartz has said she is undecided on whether to vote for Johnson. On Monday, she called for the next speaker to create temporary structures for the House to initiate government spending audits. Johnson said he recently spoke with her.

How could Trump’s certification on Jan. 6 as president be affected by a delay?

If no speaker is elected by Jan. 6, Congress likely won’t be able to ratify Trump’s election or the election of Vice President-elect JD Vance. If there is still no speaker, no functioning House, and no certification by Inauguration Day on Jan. 20, then the new GOP-controlled Senate’s president pro-tempore, 91-year-old Sen. Chuck Grassley (R., Iowa), would become president, according to the presidential line of succession.

There is no chance of Grassley becoming president. Republicans could easily elect a caretaker Speaker long enough ratify Trump.

However, I have to ask again, what precisely is the Republican mandate, if it only takes two willing to stand up to Trump to derail legislation.

One might wonder Why Does Trump Support Johnson for Speaker of the House?

Q1 of the Day: Why does Trump like Johnson?
Q1 Answer: Trump now believes Johnson will do whatever Trump says.

Team DOGE (Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy) are willing to go along with Johnson because Trump is. Otherwise, they would both be trashing Johnson.

Johnson vs McCarthy

In practice, Mike Johnson has proven to be much worse than Kevin McCarthy. I called that in advance.

Q2 of the Day: Seriously, is there no now one better than Johnson (who would take the job)?
Q2 Answer: What’s the definition of better?

If better means someone who will suck up to Trump no matter what Trump wants, then perhaps there is no one better.

Otherwise, pull a random Republican name out of the hat and you would likely be no worse off and perhaps much better off.

And so, here we are.

It is going to be very hard to pass legislation without support from some Democrats and that alone likely means bigger budget deficits.