Quiet Before The Storm
Authored by J. Peder Zane via RealClearPolitics,
“I just can’t wait for this campaign to be over.”
–The American people
Enjoy these last nasty days of the presidential election – they are the quiet before the storm. As long as the race continues, each side’s anger is reined in by the hope of victory. Once a winner is declared, the loser’s rage will erupt. This political Vesuvius promises to inflame the land as events unfold in these final days to maximize furious disappointment
Donald Trump’s side is becoming ever more confident of victory. In recent weeks, RealClearPolitics Polling Averages show Harris’ national lead evaporating while Trump has moved slightly ahead in all six battleground states. Betting markets are now giving Trump the edge.
Still, the polls are very close, and Harris may win. If Trump could insist that he won the 2020 race when all the polls predicted his defeat, just imagine his response if he fails when he appeared to be succeeding. He will not go quietly into the good night.
Kamala Harris, meanwhile, has settled on a closing argument that focuses on Trump’s alleged unsuitability for office. As the candidate herself describes her opponent as an unstable threat to the Constitution, her surrogates are once again comparing him to Hitler, Stalin, and Mussolini. They honestly believe this rhetoric, which will make it impossible for them to bow to his ascension.
We have seen this movie before. The Democrats refused to accept Trump’s victory in 2016; he still won’t concede that President Biden won in 2020. As before, neither side will blame themselves for defeat; they will lash out at their perceived enemies. Each will advance their favored conspiracy theory – Trump will rail against the press and deep state, Democrats against foreign influence and misinformation – but both will cast the result as illegitimate.
This is what happens when you are controlled by tribal emotion, when your politics are governed by psychology rather than policy. People have too much invested in the outcome – literally, their sense of self – to engage in soul searching (at least in the short run).
Because of the different structures of each party, a Harris loss would be far more destructive to the country.
In its current incarnation, the GOP is a bottom-up party. None of its ranking eminences wanted Trump to be the nominee in 2016; almost all of them hoped he would go away after his 2020 defeat. The MAGA rank and file felt differently.
If Trump loses, he will fume and smolder and inflame the body politic. Millions of his supporters will be outraged. But they are largely powerless to influence events. Jan. 6 may have been a dark day in American history, but it was a brief action by a small number of people that was never repeated. Most Republicans condemned the assault and resigned themselves to living peaceably during the Biden presidency. If Trump loses once more, party leaders will, as in 2020, admit defeat and denounce efforts to overturn the result. Frankly, they will be happy to turn the page on the Trump era.
The Democrats, by contrast, are a top-down party. While no one should be surprised by a repeat of the contained violence their supporters unleashed around Trump’s inauguration, the real action will occur once more in the corridors of power.
In a repetition of Trump’s first term, party leaders will refuse to accept his election. An army of Democratic Party lawyers is amassed, awaiting instructions on how, and where, to challenge the results. If, as the polls suggest, Democrats retake the House, they have already floated the idea of refusing to seat him, invoking the Civil War-era 14th Amendment to claim he is a Jan. 6 “insurrectionist.” Assuming that gambit fails, they will almost certainly launch multiple impeachment efforts against him while their stenographers in legacy media continuously cast him as an existential threat to the Republic. As during Trump’s first term, every day will be a nonviolent version of Jan. 6. You cannot, after all, find common ground with Hitler.
It pains me to say that the next four years will be more bitter than the last eight. We, the people, have painted ourselves into a corner by turning to the unforgiving world of politics to find identity and meaning. Will we ever find the courage to say enough?
J. Peder Zane is a RealClearInvestigations editor and columnist. He previously worked as a book review editor and book columnist for the News & Observer (Raleigh), where his writing won several national honors. Zane has also worked at the New York Times and taught writing at Duke University and Saint Augustine’s University.