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VP Harris Nominee Odds Soar After NYT Report That Biden 'Weighing' Future

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by Tyler Durden
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Update (1100ET): PredictIt odds for Kamala Harris hit the ceiling following a NY Times report that President Joe Biden is now 'weighing' whether he can remain in the race.

And while her odds pulled back bit after the White House denied the story, she's still sitting far above this morning's spike (below).

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As Democrats wrestle with whether Vice President Kamala Harris has what it takes to lead the Democratic ticket after Biden's debate performance last week kicked off 'dementia-gate,' betting market PredictIt has all but crowned her queen.

The shift to Kamala was sudden and pronounced - though it's been flipping back and forth between Harris and Biden all morning.

Meanwhile, Democratic aides and strategists are privately saying that Biden's fate could depend on what polls show over the next few weeks - and that if he falls further behind former President Trump, it could trigger widespread calls for him to drop out of the race.

A CNN poll of registered voters conducted by SSRS in the days after the debate showed Trump now beating Biden nationwide by 6 points, 49 percent support to 43 percent. The same poll showed Trump leading Harris by a narrower margin, 47 percent support to 45 percent.

The poll also showed that 56 percent of Democratic voters and Democratic-leaning independent voters think their party would have a better chance of winning the White House with someone other than Biden. Only 43 percent of these voters said they think Biden is their best option. -The Hill

"We just have to win, and it’s probably easier with someone other than Joe Biden," one Senate Democratic aide told The Hill.

One of Biden's strongest allies, Rep. James Clyburrn (D-SC) has said on two occasions that if Biden quits the race, he'd support Harris.

Other lawmakers have echoed this sentiment.

"I think she’s done an incredible job being a partner to the president and leading the party and leading the country, and I think that she will continue to do that," Sen. Laphonza Butller (D-CA) told reporters on Tuesday when asked whether Harris would be viable in the general election, adding "Everyone is in the spirit of continuing to fight for the American people and win this election."

Harris is also the only potential candidate who could directly assume the Biden campaign's $240 million in funds since she's his running mate. All other challengers would face significant issues taking over that money with months to go before the election, DealBook notes.

.That said, Trump still smokes Harris with a 3.1% lead according to 50 polls cataloged by Decision Desk HQ:

According to Democratic strategist Jamal Simmons, who was Harris' communications director until last year, Harris would have the inside track to win the nomination if Biden drops out.

"I think she wins the open convention," said Simons, adding "Institutionally, there’s no one in a better position than Kamala Harris … She’s very competent, and with the exception of the 2019 presidential contest, she has won every political contest she has been in, even when people bet against her. And hopefully the 2019 process taught her lessons that would make her a better candidate in 2024."

That said, Harris has sucked as VP - failing miserably as Biden's 'border czar' who presided over the influx of tens of millions of illegal migrants flooding into the United States. She's also failed at criminal justice reform, voting rights legislation, and administration's handling of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Harris also met with Central American leaders to address the root causes of migration, which did not result in any significant policy changes or improvements in the situation.

But while politicians circle the wagons, Democratic donors are concerned about Harris, per DealBook.

The tech mogul Reid Hoffman was among her biggest donors in the last election cycle. But Semafor reports that his top political adviser, Dmitri Mehlhorn, told backers of the super PAC American Bridge that switching to the vice president would drive away crucial undecided voters. ​​“Kamala Harris is more threatening to those swing voters than a dead Joe Biden or a comatose Joe Biden,” Mehlhorn said.

And the lawyer John Morgan told The Times that a scramble for a Plan B “could cause more infighting and do more harm than good.”

Is the market now pricing in candidate Harris?

What a ride she's been on, eh?

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