Iowa Caucus: Trump's Landslide Victory Cements Position

Former President Donald Trump's landslide victory in Iowa last night left no doubt that he'll be the party's nominee against President Joe Biden in the general election. With 97% of the votes counted, Trump came in at 51%.

Coming in second was Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (21.2%), followed by former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley (19.1%) - who fell below expectations based on recent polls which had her in second place. Vivek Ramaswamy came in fourth, after which he dropped out. Notably, Trump's 30-point victory is the largest in the history of the Iowa caucuses.

Results for Trump and Haley were roughly in line with recent polling, reducing the odds of a momentum-driven surprise in next week's New Hampshire primary, according to Goldman.

That said, Haley has substantially more support in New Hampshire than DeSantis - as recent polls have Trump at around 44%, Haley at 29%, and DeSantis at 7%. Goldman suggests however that DeSantis' strong showing in Florida may translate to a stronger finish than recent New Hampshire polling has shown.

Presidential nomination races usually become clear by February, but this year’s Republican primary looks likely to become clear sooner. None of the eventual winners of recent nominations were perceived to have odds as low as Haley or DeSantis at this point, so their campaigns would require a bigger comeback from here than we have seen in the last several elections. -GS

According to the report, no eventual winners of party nominations going back to 2000 have had odds as low as Haley or DeSantis at this stage.

Prior to Iowa,  Thomas Hagle, a professor at the University of Iowa, told The Epoch Times that a big victory for Trump "would likely blunt momentum that Haley has in New Hampshire," adding "If Trump wins Iowa, New Hampshire, and then in South Carolina, it would seem to be very difficult to stop him unless some extraneous event shakes up the race."

According to Goldman, Trump's perceived odds of winning the 2024 presidential nomination (which were already high), rose another 4pp following Iowa.

Early Call for Trump

As the Epoch Times notes, multiple media outlets called the Iowa Republican caucus for Trump very early - a little more than a half-hour after caucusing first began at 7 p.m. CT, with fewer than 1% of the votes counted.

In Pleasant Hill, Iowa, The Epoch Times’ Nathan Worcester learned of the call while the caucus was going on around him.

“This is the earliest I can remember ever calling such a thing,” CNN’s Jake Tapper said moments after CNN projected a victory for President Trump.

Mr. DeSantis’s team reacted swiftly and negatively to the move.

“Absolutely outrageous that the media would participate in election interference by calling the race before tens of thousands of Iowans even had a chance to vote. The media is in the tank for Trump, and this is the most egregious example yet,” Mr. DeSantis’s communications director, Andrew Romeo, wrote on X a few minutes after calls were made across broadcast and online media.

Absolutely outrageous that the media would participate in election interference by calling the race before tens of thousands of Iowans even had a chance to vote. The media is in the tank for Trump and this is the most egregious example yet.

— Andrew Romeo (@andrewromeo33) January 16, 2024

Some have claimed AP violated its own guidelines on races, which state, “AP will not call the winner of a race before all the polls in a jurisdiction are scheduled to close.”

The Epoch Times has reached out to AP for comment on these assertions.

“The Associated Press declared the former president the winner based on an analysis of initial returns as well as results of AP VoteCast, a survey of voters who planned to caucus on Monday night. Both showed Trump with an insurmountable lead,” the news service wrote in an article explaining its decision.

“That’s insane to call it that early. We didn’t even vote until at least 7:30,” said Alyssa Wallace who, with her husband Seth, attended candidate Vivek Ramaswamy’s watch party in Des Moines.

“Thank you Iowa, I love you all!!! Donald J. Trump,” the former president wrote on Truth Social after 9 p.m. CT.

Republican presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy ended his campaign late on Jan. 15 after finishing in a distant fourth place in Iowa’s Republican caucus, much to the dismay of his supporters.

“This one’s hard for me, I’ve got to admit this,” Mr. Ramaswamy said in a video that he live-streamed on X, formerly Twitter.

“We did not achieve the surprise that we wanted to deliver tonight—and I think that that’s just a hard fact that we’re going have to accept as a campaign,” Mr. Ramaswamy said.

“There is no path for me to be the next president absent things that we don’t want to see happen in this country,” the entrepreneur and anti-woke investor told a crowd of supporters.

“I am so proud of every one of you who have lifted us up,” he told the crowd.

Mr. Ramaswamy then revealed that President Trump would enjoy his “full endorsement.”

Angie Marie of Des Moines, a first-time caucus-goer, didn’t understand why Mr. Ramaswamy opted to end his campaign.

“I want to cry,” she said. “It’s just the first one. Why stop now?”

She was even more unhappy that he endorsed former President Donald Trump who has “had nothing nice to say about him for the last 72 hours.”

Asked if she would support Mr. Trump, her answer was a sharp, “No!”

Matthew Garcia, 34, also a first-time caucus-goer from Des Moines expressed similar sentiments.

An independent who had never engaged much with politics, he said Mr. Ramaswamy was “open-testing hypothesis on how to approach connecting with our generation” and had impressed him through his podcasts and social media discussions. Mr. Garcia said he doesn’t know who to support now.

“He’s young and he’s now on the radar,” he said. “I think he should run again. I think he will run again.”

Former President Trump spoke positively of Mr. Ramaswamy during his victory address.

A live stream of Mr. Ramaswamy after the announcement showed him hobnobbing with his supporters.