Do Americans Prefer Equalizing Outcome Or Opportunity In 2024?

Authored by Gonzalo Schwarz via RealClearPolitics.com,

The American Dream was built on a promise of equality – a promise of equality in terms of life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness.

During the 2024 election, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are both working overtime to say why Republicans or Democrats are better on the equality issue.

But what kind of equality?

Harris is known for promoting “equity,” while Trump is quick to invoke the American Dream but slower to define it.

And so, voters are left wondering.

Many of the policies uttered on the campaign trail are focused on equalizing outcomes – or, at the very least, equalizing starting points.

To use a Harris quote, “Equitable treatment means we all end up at the same place.”

She also proposes an opportunity agenda, promising to crack down on price gouging, raise the minimum wage, provide $25,000 in down payment assistance for first-time homebuyers, and increase the child tax credit, among other proposals. Pushback has been swift among economists and policy researchers, who cite the unintended consequences of price controls and other forms of government overreach.

Meanwhile, Trump insists on continuing his tariff policy and expanding the child tax credit. Cue similar pushback: In his case, the vast majority of economists and other experts agree about the negative impact of tariffs on economic growth.

In the end, what do American voters actually want?

The candidate who is most likely to win come November is the candidate who is more adept at selling equality as most Americans actually see it.

In a recent survey on the American Dream conducted with NORC at the University of Chicago, we put the question to the test. We asked people if they think equality means equality before the law and having a fair chance to pursue opportunities regardless of where they started (equality to opportunity), if equality means that everyone starts in the same with people given tools to help them catch up with others (equalizing starting points), or if equality just means people ending up in the same place like candidate Harris has said.

Not surprisingly, Americans don’t believe that equality means everyone ending in the same place.

Only 4% of U.S. adults say so, while equalizing people’s starting points only garnered 18% of the respondent vote.

On the other hand, nearly two-thirds of Americans claim equality is actually about the equality of opportunity.

This holds true across age, income level, education, and even political leanings. 

Democrats and Republicans generally agree that proper policymaking is predicated upon support for equality of opportunity.