Biden Keeps Polling Worse And Worse Vs. Trump
Joe Biden came to sniff kids and watch his poll numbers crater, and he's all out of kids (at least until Christmas).
Recent polls, including those from The New York Times/Siena College, have started to show Trump ahead in key swing states. These polls are significant indicators of Biden’s electoral challenges. "Among the latest surveys this month from 13 separate pollsters, Biden’s position is worse than their previous polls in all but two of them," highlighting the growing concern for the Biden campaign, Politico reports.
Trump Ahead in Swing States
The New York Times/Siena College polls at the start of November showed Trump leading in four of the six key swing states. This trend is reinforced by other surveys, which consistently place Biden in a weaker position than before in head-to-head matchups against Trump. Notably, Trump's national polling average is currently higher than any point in the past year.
Biden’s approval rating dipped down to 38 percent in FiveThirtyEight’s average earlier this month, the lowest since July 2022. Similarly, when Biden hit 40 percent in RealClearPolitics’ average this month, it was his lowest reading since August 2022.
Meanwhile, Trump’s numbers are rising. Dating back a little more than a year, RealClearPolitics’ average has had Trump hovering between 42 percent and 46 percent in a head-to-head matchup with Biden. Not only did Trump break 46 percent for the first time earlier this month, this week he inched above 47 percent, about equal to his vote share in the 2020 election. -Politico
Despite a significant advertising campaign to bolster his numbers, polls from states like Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and Pennsylvania show Trump leading. Moreover, Trump is ahead in six of seven swing states surveyed by Morning Consult and Bloomberg News, including a notable 8-point lead in Arizona and a 5-point lead in Michigan.
Trump leads Biden in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — with or without independent names in the mix.
— Morning Consult (@MorningConsult) November 19, 2023
View more: https://t.co/zVoyscacZI pic.twitter.com/CB5L9dmniW
Since mid-August, Biden and the Democratic National Committee have spent about $12 million on swing state TV ads, according to the tracking firm AdImpact. For most of the fall, Biden spent about $1 million a week, though that’s been roughly cut in half for the past few weeks. -Politico
The Shift in Young Voter Demographics
A particularly startling result comes from last week's NBC News poll, indicating Trump's lead over Biden among voters younger than 35, with a 46 percent to 42 percent split. This is a significant shift, considering young voters have historically leaned towards Democratic candidates. Other polls, like those from Morning Consult, Fox News, and Quinnipiac University, also show Biden holding only a narrow lead among this demographic.
Jury is still out on the impact of 3rd party candidates
The role of third-party candidates in the upcoming election remains uncertain. Pollsters have not yet consistently included independent candidates like Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Cornel West, or Green Party candidate Jill Stein in their surveys. However, the inclusion of these candidates in polling shows mixed signals regarding their impact on the electoral race between Biden and Trump. Biden's current deficit does not seem to stem from third-party candidacies, but their presence in the race could further complicate his path to recovery, especially if they draw support from key voter groups like the youth.
That said, Politico is clear that Biden's deficit is not the result of third-party candidates, including any who are potential looming such as retiring Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV).
And then of course, there's Gavin Newsom...
