US Existing Home Sales Surged In November, But...

After a collapse in new home sales in October (and modest rise in pending and existing home sales), analysts expected a further (small) acceleration in existing home sales in November and they were right as sales rose 4.8% MoM (vs +3.0% exp) - the biggest MoM jump since Feb 2024. That lifted sales up 6.14% YoY - the highest since June 2021...

Source: Bloomberg

That beat lifted the Total Existing Home Sales SAAR to 4.15mm - six month highs, but in context, still languishing near the lowest since the trough in 2010...

Source: Bloomberg

But don't get all excited quite yet - these are contracts that were generally signed in September, and since then rates have surged higher and yesterday's Fed will not help as mortgage rates top 7% once again...

Source: Bloomberg

Affordability remains a major hangup. The median sale price of a previously owned home increased 4.7% from a year earlier to $406,100 last month, a record for the month of November.

Of course, realtors can't help but get excited...

“Home sales momentum is building,” NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said in a prepared statement.

But Yun admits that annual home sales are on pace to come in even lower than last year, which was the worst since 1995.

First-time buyers made up 30% of purchases in November, but NAR’s annual report showed the share was 24% for all of 2024, the lowest on record.