Renter Nation Returns? Multi-Family Building Permits Soared In November

A mixed picture of the housing market this morning with Housing Starts declining for the third straight month (-1.8% MoM vs +2.6% MoM exp) but Building Permits soaring 6.1% MoM (massively outperforming the +1.0% exp) - the biggest MoM jump since Feb 2023...

Source: Bloomberg

That lifted the Permits SAAR to 1.505mm - the highest since Feb 2024 - while Starts SAAR fell to near COVID lockdown lows...

Source: Bloomberg

The surge in Permits was all thanks to multi-family units (which rose 22.1% MoM - the most since Feb 2023) while multi-family Starts plunged 24.1% MoM (perhaps due to hurricane impacts)...

Source: Bloomberg

We've seen this optimistic pattern before - but it didn't end well last time...

Source: Bloomberg

What's interesting is that homebuilders suddenly seem optimistic (about renter nation), despite a plunge in rate-cut expectations...

Source: Bloomberg

How will they feel about a hawkish rate cut later today?