After plunging 6.9% MoM in January (revised up from the initial 10.5% plunge reported amid weather related chaos), new home sales rose 1.8% MoM in February (less than expected).

Source: Bloomberg

As noisy as the series is, that lifted YoY sales up 5.1%, with new home sales flat for the last two years while pending and existing home sales continue to trend lower...

Source: Bloomberg

Sales in the South, the US’s biggest homebuilding region, rose 6.6% last month after heavy snowfall kept buyers on the sidelines a month earlier. 

Purchases also rose in the Midwest, according to Commerce Department data released Tuesday.

However, with mortgage rates having declined recently, there is some silver lining for homebuilders in the short-term...

Last month, the supply of new homes for sale increased 0.8% to 500,000 — the highest level since 2007. 

Meantime, the median sale price of a new home decreased 1.5% from a year ago to $414,500.

But we note that median prices have been revised significantly lower...

Despite the rebound in February, builders have grown more cautious lately against a backdrop of increased home supply and the sustained effects of high mortgage rates and prices. That combination indicates residential investment will provide limited support for the economy.

“Consumers are working through affordability concerns and uncertainties related to macroeconomic and geopolitical issues, which are causing them to move slowly in their homebuying decisions,” KB Home Chief Executive Officer Jeffrey Mezger said Monday in a press release announcing the company’s earnings. 

KB Home missed its first-quarter sales goals and cut its fiscal 2025 revenue guidance.