Millennials Begin Influencing Classic Car Auctions As Baby Boomers Take Hit On Old Packards 

Baby boomers are holding the bag in the classic car market. These folks first began retiring in the early 2000s—right before the GFC—and some were on buying sprees for classic automobiles, such as Packard Roadsters and Ford Thunderbirds. Fast-forward to 2024, and the classic car choices of baby boomers did not rub off on GenXers and millennials, as youngsters overwhelmingly prefer cars from the 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s, such as 911 Turbos.

"Millennials shun many of these vehicles (pre-1960s) that were popular with boomers. Some of these vehicles may have peaked for good as the younger generations want no parts of these cars," we noted last October after multiple well-known car auctions.

At the time, we first recognized the changing of the guard as GenXers and millennials were not showing up on the buy-side to purchase classics from the 1930s, 1940s, 1950s, and 1960s. We must note many of these classics have fueled the historic car bubble for decades.

These classics are becoming increasingly difficult to sell at some of the country's most popular auctions. The latest comes after Monterey Car Week, where sales were down 3% from last year, and unsold classics from the pre-1960s piled up. 

Here's a terrific summary of the auction's highlights from auto news website Hagerty:

Car Week 2024 and the Monterey auctions are now in the books. While the Sunday concours in Pebble Beach is all about elegance, the auctions are best described with numbers. In four days, more than 1100 vehicles were offered, and 73 percent of them sold. Of those offered, 163 were potentially worth $1M or more. Total sales for the five auctions was just under $392M. Despite all those big numbers, fewer lots were offered this year, total sales were down by three percent, and the average price fell, too. Why?

Starting with those 163 examples of $1M-plus cars offered, the market appears to have a growing preference for more modern vehicles. When "modern" is defined as anything built since 1981, it leaves nearly 100 years of vintage vehicles and just over 40 years of modern. The amount of cars—140 vintage and 23 modern—could reflect the broader time period considered for vintage cars, or that imbalance could merely reflect an oversupply of vintage $1M-plus vehicles. Since 2021 in Monterey, modern vehicles in that seven-figure range have achieved a higher sell-through rate than vintage vehicles, partly due to being offered in smaller numbers.

It could also be that the appeal of vintage seven-figure cars like 1930s coachbuilt French cars is diminishing. Both the 1937 Bugatti Type 57 Atalante at Gooding (low est. $9M) and the 1938 Talbot-Lago T10C Teardrop Coupe at Broad Arrow (low est. $6.5M) were no sales. Conversely, both auction companies sold modern track-only sports racing cars, with Gooding selling a 1995 Ferrari 333 SP Evoluzione for $5,120,000 and Broad Arrow selling a 1997 Porsche 911 GT1 for $7,045,000.

Of course, seven-figure Ferraris and Monterey auctions go very well together, too. In the past 36 years, the top auction sale of the entire year occurred in Monterey 19 times, and 11 of those times, the car was a Ferrari. This year, six of the top 10 were Ferraris. However, like the broader $1M-plus market, there's a split between vintage Enzo-era Ferraris (pre-1974) and modern Ferraris. Vintage cars are more numerous at this price level, and the sell-through rate has been falling, while modern cars are relatively rarer and have been selling better. While changing tastes could account for that difference, supply differences could also affect the sell-through rate.

What stood out to us was the sell-through rate of 52% for pre-1981 cars priced at $1 million or more at Monterey. For newer vehicles, the sell-through rate came in at 73%—yet more evidence that Gen Xers and millennials prefer cars from the 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s.

Data from Hagerty's Supercar Index, which tracks sports cars from the 1980s through the 2000s, shows a surge of over 60% since 2019. In contrast, the Blue Chip Index, which includes classic Corvettes, Ferraris, Jaguars, and other cars from the 1950s and 1960s, has fallen by 3%.

Millennials have dominated the labor market for the last five or so years. Their shift in taste has dictated economic trends this decade; many have been crushed by debt and inflation, and many cannot afford homes and/or start families.

And the baby boomers (or their estates) who are loaded up with classics from the pre-1960s better start to understand that these car prices will only slide more as millennials don't want Packards and T-Birds. They want the 1980s 911 Turbos. Also, high interest rates under failed Bidenomics have dampened activity in the classic car market.