'Unadjusted' Jobless Claims Surged To 4-Month Highs, Led By California

The number of Americans filing for jobless benefits for the first time tumbled to just 209k (from 233k the prior week). However, at the same time, un-adjusted claims jumped to 238.7k - the highest in four months...

Source: Bloomberg

The surge in unadjusted claims was led by California...

Continuing Claims dipped from 1.862mm to 1.84mm last week, still hovering near two-year highs...

Source: Bloomberg

However, it's going to get worse, as Goldman reminds us that ongoing seasonal distortions have increasingly weighed on the level of continuing claims over the last six months, and we now expect that the reversal of those distortions could exert a cumulative boost of 375k to the level of continuing claims between now and March.

We're gonna need more seasonal adjustments.