Following the initial surge in jobless claims in the DC area to start the year, things have slowed notably in the last two weeks (although last week saw a modest rise in the number of people filing for first time benefits)...

Source: Bloomberg

Overall, initial claims fell last week - with non-seasonally-adjusted claims now at their lowest since November

Source: Bloomberg

Meanwhile what the fuck is going on with NY jobless claims data?

Last week claims exploded higher in NY...

And this week they collapsed...

Continuing jobless claims remain range-bound for the last six months around the 1.875mm Americans level...

Source: Bloomberg

We wonder if the discrepancy between DOGE-driven layoffs and the lack of signal in the claims data is related to the buyouts offered to federal workers - which may preclude them from applying for unemployment benefits.