Inflation Prints Hotter Than Expected After Big Fed Rate-Cut
For the 52nd straight month, core consumer prices rose on a MoM basis in September (+0.3% MoM - hotter than the 0.2% expected) - the strongest since March. That left Core CPI YoY up 3.3%, hotter than the 3.2% expected...
Source: Bloomberg
The headline CPI also printed hotter than expected (+0.2% MoM vs +0.1% MoM exp), with the YoY CPI up 2.4% (hotter than the 2.3% expected but lowest since Feb 2021)...
Source: Bloomberg
Core Services and Food costs surged in September...
Source: Bloomberg
Overall, headline consumer prices are up over 20% (5.1% p.a.) since the Biden-Harris admin took over, which compares to around 8% (1.97% p.a) during Trump's first term...
Source: Bloomberg
The so-called SuperCore CPI also increased on a YoY basis to +4.6%...
Source: Bloomberg
A surge in Transportation Services costs (record high auto insurance) and Medical Care Supplies lifted Super Core...
Source: Bloomberg
The silver lining is that shelter inflation continues to slow...
Source: Bloomberg
BUT... Why is the cost of auto insurance up 56% since Biden and Harris took over?
Source: Bloomberg
Guess who’s back? Food inflation.
It looks like all aisles in the grocery store were more expensive in the month: five of the six major grocery store food group indexes increased.
The index for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs rose 0.8% in September; the eggs index jumped 8.4%. The fruits and vegetables index increased 0.9% over the month, following a 0.2-percent decline in August.
Source: Bloomberg
Rather oddly, given the slump in demand for luxury goods in China amid that country's economic slowdown, jewelry and watches saw a 5.2% increase on the month - the biggest-ever MoM jump.
Source: Bloomberg
Real wages are down since the start of the Biden-Harris administration...
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, we note that money supply is resurgent once again, suggesting The Fed's confidence in CPI's decline may be misplaced...
Source: Bloomberg
Could we really replay the '70s once again?
Source: Bloomberg
Will that really be Powell's legacy? Or will the timing of this resurgence in inflation be perfectly timed to coincide with Trump's election victory... and offer a perfect patsy for who is to blame?