We Have Sharply Binary Geopolitical Outcomes Ahead

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...either: sustained trade chaos, with one set of implications for the world economy; or a US retreat, with another set of implications...


Medicaid, SALT, & SNAP Debates Threaten Trump Agenda As Reconciliation Deadline Looms

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"Coming down the wire..."


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In less than 72 hours – as soon as Friday, May 3rd – President Trump could make what former Treasury Advisor Jim Rickards calls "the most consequential economic announcement in American history."

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Dollar Surge Wrecks Crowded Trades — MAGs Want Fuel

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You need dollars to chase the MAGs

Mike Waltz And Deputy Deleted After Signal Fiasco: Reports

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Just waiting for the denial now...


Zerohedge Debates

Schiff: The Bounce Is Just A Bear Market Rally

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"Things are going well, the negotiations are going good, so a lot of positive comments that I think were all a bunch of BS. I think these comments were deliberately floated out there to get the markets to rise..."


"As If Record Yen Longs Suddenly Cried Out In Terror": The BOJ Goes Dovish, Slashes Growth Forecast, Sends Yen Plunging

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So much for the "highest conviction trade"


The Baby Hoax: Reporters Repeat False Narrative Over Child Deportations

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The media has been promulgating a false claim that children as young as four are being deported...


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'Beneficial Switching Away From Imports' - US Manufacturing Surveys Signal No Recession In Q2

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"...the survey saw some producers report evidence of beneficial tariff-related switching of customer demand away from imports..."


'What Recession?' Goldman's META/MSFT Post-Mortem

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...the conference calls from both META and MSFT were good reminders not to lose sight of the big ball re: AI -- spend, adoption and impact


Kremlin Reacts To Minerals Deal Signing: 'Trump Has Broken The Zelensky Regime'

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"Now they will have to pay for military supplies with the national wealth of a disappearing country."


Gold Breaks Down As China Hits The Sell Button And CTAs Line Up To Follow

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China just dumped a million ounces of gold

Is 'Unbridled Optimism' The Perfect Setup For Stock Shorts?

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Stocks are overpriced for an economy at peak uncertainty where a recession, and much deeper price declines, could rapidly become the base case...


Jobless Claims Jumped Last Week As 'DOGE Actions' Spark Biggest YTD Layoffs Since 2020

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“DOGE Actions” lead all job cut reasons in 2025 with 283,172...


US Futures Surge On Blowout Tech Earnings, Erasing April's Losses

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"So far we’re seeing big tech companies deliver on earnings, which is reassuring"


Auto Sales Had "Robust" April, But Transaction Prices Now Set To Rise 6-12%: Deutsche Bank

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But while April paints a rosy picture, Deutsche Bank is flashing some warning signs for 2025.


China Deploys 'Growing Army' Of Pro-Beijing NGOs To UN To Target Critics: Report

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‘China has sought greater influence within the U.N. human rights system and become more aggressive in silencing dissent,’ an investigative report says.


"Cash Is King": Mark Mobius Says His Funds Hold 95% Cash

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"Trump doesn't want to see a big market crash, so he will be making adjustments..." 


Lower Drug Prices: A Great Deal For America

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Prescription drugs have jumped 46.2% since 2020


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  • Europe on holiday, US equity futures entirely in the green with sentiment boosted after strong META/MSFT results.
  • DXY is a little firmer ahead of US data, JPY hit post-BoJ/Ueda.
  • JGBs lead post BoJ/Ueda, USTs await Tier 1 data points.
  • Crude continues to decline, XAU hit by the USD while base peers welcome the US tone post-Mag7.
  • Looking ahead, US Challenger Layoffs, Jobless Claims & ISM Manufacturing.
  • Earnings from Amazon, Apple, Riot Platform

Ukraine Signs Final Trump-Brokered Minerals Deal, Giving US Preferential Access To Resources

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Last-minute hiccups threatened to derail it, but maybe Zelensky finally said "thank you"?...